Women's Final Four predictions: Surrounded by 1-seeds, is No. 2 seed UConn the favorite?

TAMPA, Fla. -- The 2025 women's Final Four has arrived astatine last, with 4 heavyweights -- a No. 2 effect and a trio of 1-seeds -- clashing successful Friday's nationalist semifinals.

The archetypal crippled (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) features an SEC showdown betwixt Texas Longhorns and South Carolina Gamecocks, who person already faced disconnected 3 times this season. The defending NCAA champion Gamecocks went 2-1 against the Longhorns, who are successful their archetypal Final Four since 2003.

The UCLA Bruins and UConn Huskies (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) aren't arsenic acquainted with each other, past gathering successful November 2023 during a Cayman Islands Thanksgiving event. The Bruins won that meeting, but UConn holds a 7-1 vantage successful the series. The Bruins are appearing successful their archetypal NCAA Final Four, portion the Huskies person played successful 16 of the past 17 and 24 overall.

But players and coaches said Thursday that past has small if immoderate bearing connected the present. ESPN takes a look astatine the matchups, picks the winners and predicts which squad volition beryllium cutting down the nets aft Sunday's rubric crippled (3 p.m. ET, ABC).

UCLA feels similar it's being overlooked contempt being the No. 1 wide seed. Are the Bruins underdogs?

Katie Barnes: Sportsbooks are treating the Bruins similar a sizable underdog: ESPN BET has UCLA arsenic a 7.5-point underdog. Though I picked the Huskies to triumph this matchup, UCLA is good! The Bruins person Lauren Betts and person lone been beaten by USC this year. In this epoch of women's assemblage basketball, it's astir intolerable to get done a play with nary "bad losses." This is doubly existent for those successful ever deepening conferences similar the Big Ten, but that's what UCLA did. The Bruins are much than susceptible of making beingness hard for UConn and winning Friday night. Plus, it seems similar they person a spot of a spot connected their enarthrosis astir being underestimated.

Andrea Adelson: I started to inquire a question to UCLA manager Cori Close successful her quality league Thursday, opening with "You are the No. 1 wide effect ..." Before I could finish, she said it didn't look that mode based connected the mode UCLA has been covered each season. Now adhd successful the information UConn is simply a favourite and has the Final Four acquisition -- thing the Bruins don't person -- and it makes consciousness wherefore UCLA is the perceived underdog. Paige Bueckers and Geno Auriemma unsocial thrust conversation, and portion the Bruins person spent much clip astatine No. 1 this season, it is casual to autumn backmost connected the squad that has been there, done that. "This is this year's UConn's team, not the past 10 oregon 20 years of UConn teams, and this is our UCLA team," Close said. "I person a batch of confidence, some mentally and physically and tactically, successful this UCLA team."

Michael Voepel: The Bruins person stayed even-keel each season. But they've besides shown much moxie and grit that they mightiness person lacked past twelvemonth erstwhile they mislaid successful the Sweet 16 to LSU. Guard Kiki Rice and guardant Angela Dugalic gave a batch of recognition for that to inferior guardant Janiah Barker, who transferred from Texas A&M. "She's done a large occupation conscionable bringing a antithetic edge, a mentality to our team," Rice said. "It started successful the summertime successful pickup. I deliberation that toughness and mentality displacement successful assurance -- wherever we expect to find a mode to triumph -- is thing we truly needed."

All that, on with their talent, is wherefore the Bruins apt aren't the underdogs they mightiness look to be. Obviously, these programs are miles isolated successful Final Four acquisition and history. But UCLA should beryllium capable to marque this a precise competitory game.

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Why Monica McNutt is sticking with UCLA to triumph it all

Monica McNutt is lasting by her archetypal prediction of UCLA winning the women's NCAA tournament.

Is determination immoderate mode to dilatory down UConn's Paige Bueckers?

Alexa Philippou: It feels similar this is simply a antithetic mentation of the Bueckers than successful caller years. Auriemma has talked astir seeing Bueckers play with little unit this postseason compared to last, wherever she possibly felt that if she didn't get 30-35 points a night, the Huskies would lose. This year, helium said, she's putting up these numbers -- 105 points and 59.1% shooting from the tract and 61.9% connected 3-pointers implicit the past 3 games -- much truthful due to the fact that she wants to. "She's got a full antithetic vibe astir her," Auriemma said. "Maybe she's lighter, she's not putting arsenic overmuch unit connected herself, and it's conscionable coming easier."

Either way, look for UCLA to bounds the Huskies' 3-point attempts, backdoor cuts and antiaircraft rebounding -- those factors, Close told the media Thursday, are the biggest predictors of UConn's success. Bueckers' ratio has been disconnected the charts, but the Huskies person different players who tin deed from heavy -- Azzi Fudd, Sarah Strong and Ashlynn Shade, primarily. It's a fistful to person to stop, particularly if they tin get retired successful transition.

Voepel: Bueckers is truthful locked successful it seems improbable she tin beryllium slowed down much. And UCLA knows that. So the Bruins' absorption mightiness beryllium much connected trying to marque her enactment a small harder for her points and beryllium arsenic carnal arsenic they tin beryllium with her. But Bueckers is the benignant of subordinate who astir perpetually rises to the occasion, nary substance however large the juncture is.

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Peck: Paige Bueckers is hardest subordinate to defender successful Final Four

Carolyn Peck joins "NBA Today" to preview the Final Four matchup betwixt UConn and UCLA.

Is Lauren Betts the biggest idiosyncratic X origin successful the Final Four?

Philippou: The Huskies don't person a ascendant halfway that matches up with Betts, but Auriemma knows astir coaching specified players. "When we came [to the Final Four] with Kara [Wolters]," Auriemma said Thursday, "I thought it's intolerable for america to lose." At 6-foot-7, Wolters was a cardinal portion to the Huskies' 1994-95 title squad that went 35-0. Also 6-7, Betts has proved to beryllium that difference-maker each play for the Bruins.

"It doesn't substance what's going connected on the violative end," Auriemma said Thursday. "When it each breaks down and you truly request a bucket bad, you got thing cipher other has, and that's what [the Bruins] have."

But UCLA isn't conscionable Betts. The Bruins situation her with shooters who tin sound down 3-pointers, and she excels successful passing retired of treble teams. That's wherefore Bueckers said the Huskies person to prime their poison: Is it champion to prioritize slowing down Betts oregon shutting down the Bruins' shooters? We'll find retired what the Huskies deliberation aboriginal connected Friday.

Voepel: As Alexa said, ace high-quality centers are rarer than immoderate benignant of player, truthful Betts stands retired successful this Final Four. And she has proved herself to beryllium a big-game subordinate who tin beryllium ascendant connected discourtesy and defense. If she has a monster game, UCLA's likelihood of making the last go peculiarly good. Betts is the biggest reason, successful fact, I'm picking the Bruins to win.

.@CAROLYNPECK analyzes imaginable obstacles for each squad successful the women's Final Four ✍️ pic.twitter.com/B6STgesuIe

South Carolina freshman Joyce Edwards struggled successful the regional. Will she bounce backmost Friday?

Adelson: South Carolina manager Dawn Staley said past week to triumph the nationalist championship, the Gamecocks volition request much accumulation retired of Edwards than they person gotten successful the past 3 NCAA tourney games, wherever she scored a combined 15 points. Edwards had immoderate of her slightest productive games of the play successful the 3 erstwhile meetings against Texas, truthful astatine this constituent -- fixed not lone that past but the caller NCAA tourney past -- it is hard to envision a breakout game, peculiarly since Texas plays smothering defence and has constricted the starring scorers of its past 3 opponents to good beneath their averages.

Philippou: The happening astir South Carolina is that adjacent if Edwards isn't playing great, teammates are stepping up astir her, chiefly Sania Feagin and Chloe Kitts, who was the SEC tourney MVP and the Birmingham Regional 2 Most Outstanding Player. Kitts leads the squad successful scoring this postseason astatine 14.1 points per crippled connected 60.3% shooting from the field, the bump successful accumulation thing she feels is simply a merchandise of her accrued confidence. While Staley surely wants Edwards to instrumentality to form, it astatine slightest helps to person Kitts playing astatine specified a precocious level.

Voepel: While Edwards hasn't played good of late, it should beryllium to her vantage that the Gamecocks are playing Texas next. Staley said successful Birmingham that things travel astatine players rapidly erstwhile the NCAA tourney starts, which tin beryllium particularly hard for a freshman. But Edwards already knows Texas well, scoring 10 and 11 points against the Longhorns successful the Gamecocks' 2 wins. Edwards said Thursday she hasn't been done galore "slumps" arsenic a player, and she's acceptable to extremity this one.

What is Texas' look for beating South Carolina?

Adelson: Let's beryllium clear: Texas beat South Carolina conscionable a fewer months back, ending the Gamecocks' 57-game SEC regular-season winning streak. South Carolina has shown vulnerabilities passim the season, and its 67-50 nonaccomplishment successful January wasn't peculiarly close. This is simply a Gamecocks squad that tin spell acold astatine times due to the fact that of its mediocre changeable enactment and has a propensity for careless mistakes. In the earlier loss, aggregate players got into foul trouble, which Staley said forced South Carolina to alteration its rotation of players and got the squad retired of sync. Texas has a formidable defense, truthful that is No. 1. If Madison Booker tin proceed with the accumulation she has had the past 4 games, the Longhorns volition springiness themselves a accidental to win.

Philippou: The Longhorns' defence has consistently held the Gamecocks successful the 60s this season, but Texas has scored anyplace from 45 to 66 points against them. While posts Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre volition person to person large nights for Texas to win, nary subordinate is arsenic important to the Longhorns' occurrence arsenic Booker. In the Longhorns' brace of losses to the Gamecocks, she scored 17 combined points connected 7-for-32 shooting. In the Longhorns' win? Twenty points connected 7-for-22 shooting. She didn't sprout efficiently, but it was conscionable capable with what Jones and Oldacre did to get Texas the win

Voepel: Booker's pull-up midrange leap changeable makes her truthful unsafe and hard to guard. South Carolina antiaircraft specializer Bree Hall said Thursday that benignant of changeable causes much occupation for defenders than immoderate different due to the fact that it is hard to stop. We should besides notation freshmen guards Jordan Lee and Bryanna Preston, who combined for 25 points disconnected the seat successful Texas' Sweet 16 triumph implicit Tennessee. Both tin assistance supply a lifeline for Texas' offense. Booker besides complimented the youngsters connected helping the remainder of the Longhorns enactment escaped and relaxed.

Which 2 teams volition beforehand to Sunday's rubric game?

Adelson: South Carolina, UConn

Barnes: South Carolina, UConn

Philippou: South Carolina, UConn

Voepel: South Carolina, UCLA

Which squad volition triumph the NCAA championship?

Adelson: UConn. The Huskies are the astir talented squad apical to bottom, starting with Bueckers, who seems to beryllium connected a ngo to etch her sanction among the all-time UConn greats with a nationalist title of her own. UConn is playing its champion hoops astatine the close time.

Barnes: UConn. My gut tells maine UConn. Bueckers is playing similar she desperately wants a championship. She's taking implicit games successful a mode I haven't seen her bash consistently since the past clip the Huskies played for a title, backmost successful 2022. (Who could hide that double-overtime thriller against NC State?) It's hard to prime against the champion subordinate remaining successful the tournament, and Bueckers is that player.

Philippou: UConn. Aside from what Katie and Andrea said astir Bueckers, the trio of Bueckers, Strong and Fudd is what makes the Huskies astir dangerous. That's the champion postulation of endowment near successful the tournament, and combined with the coaching of Auriemma and the remainder of their depth, is capable to get the Huskies backmost connected the mountaintop.

Voepel: South Carolina. The Gamecocks cognize what's successful them: The quality to bombard teams with truthful galore scoring options. We didn't spot that against Duke successful the Elite Eight, but it's happened galore times this season. If South Carolina tin utilize its seat efficaciously and enactment unneurotic immoderate bully scoring spurts -- on with the bully defence that is ever expected -- the Gamecocks tin bring different trophy home.