Trump wants to attack drug cartels. How can Mexico respond if he does?

MEXICO CITY — She has won acclaim for facing down tariff threats, shunning governmental bluster and skirting White House provocations — portion winning admiration from President Trump.

“A chill head” has been her motto.

But Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum whitethorn soon look her astir challenging trial — and her effect could specify bilateral relations for years.

At issue: Trump’s stated determination to deploy U.S. subject unit against Mexican cause cartels, six of which his medication has designated arsenic overseas violent organizations. Trump has vowed to “wage war” connected cartels, which, helium said, workout “total control” successful Mexico and airs a “grave threat” to U.S. nationalist security.

In effect to U.S. pressure, Mexico has cracked down connected cause trafficking and amerciable immigration, dispatching thousands of troops to its bluish frontier and adjacent shipping 29 accused cartel capos to the United States, skirting Mexican owed process guarantees. The Sheinbaum medication has besides agreed to expanded U.S. surveillance flights, reportedly including CIA drone forays implicit Mexican territory.

Still, Sheinbaum rejected Trump’s offer — delivered successful a testy telephone telephone past period — to nonstop the U.S. Army to Mexico. Boots connected the ground, she said she told her counterpart, is simply a reddish enactment that Mexico would “never accept,” adding: “Sovereignty is not sold.”

Her unequivocal effect — which reflected Mexico’s enduring memories of U.S. invasions, onshore grabs and bullying — was wide praised successful Mexico, wherever the nationalist paper tin ever beryllium dealt successful effect to perceived gringo aggression.

“We are each with the president and acceptable to support Mexico,” said Alfredo García, 56, who runs a cafeteria successful Mexico City. “Trump and the United States are precise powerful, but we cannot fto this happen.”

But Sheinbaum seemed to permission small wiggle country for aboriginal negotiations connected the explosive issue. Trump appeared exasperated.

“The president of Mexico is simply a beauteous woman, but she is truthful acrophobic of the cartels that she can’t adjacent deliberation straight,” the president told reporters aboard Air Force One.

An adherent of kinetic actions — Trump has already amped up unit numbers on the southwestern borderline — the U.S. president seems undeterred by adept opinions that strikes would person small effect connected Mexico’s highly dispersed drug-trafficking gangs and their networks of primitive, kitchen-sink laboratories.

Mexican soldiers patrol a road successful Villa Juarez, extracurricular of Culiacan, the superior of the northwestern authorities of Sinaloa, successful February. The authorities is location to almighty cause cartels.

(Fernando Llano / Associated Press)

Trump has agelong contemplated launching the subject against Mexican cartels. According to 1 of his erstwhile Defense secretaries, Mark Esper, Trump mused successful 2020 astir firing missiles astatine cause labs. In his memoir, “A Sacred Oath,” Esper wrote that the president said the U.S. could simply contradict work for immoderate attack.

For years, Mexican police, sometimes with U.S. assistance, person been destroying cause labs and taking retired kingpins — to nary evident effect connected cross-border smuggling.

“It’s each for show,” Mike Vigil, erstwhile caput of planetary operations astatine the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, said of Trump’s speech of a U.S. onslaught connected cartels.

Nonetheless, Sheinbaum’s rejection of Trump’s unit connection seemed to immoderate observers present an uncharacteristically nuance-free absorption from a person who, contempt her leftist activistic pedigree, has earned a estimation arsenic a pragmatic interlocutor with the mercurial U.S. president.

“The effect of the president was correct, but incomplete,” said Eduardo Guerrero, a Mexican information analyst, who suggested that Sheinbaum could person appeased Trump with proposals for enhanced cooperation, abbreviated of U.S. troops connected Mexican soil.

“Mexico tin usage help,” helium added, noting a imaginable request for U.S. training, technological assistance and armaments. “The powerfulness that organized transgression has amassed is specified that the Mexican authorities intelligibly cannot incorporate the threat.”

The contentious Trump-Sheinbaum speech fanned fears that Mexicans would aftermath up 1 time to a once-unimaginable scenario: quality of U.S. strikes, beryllium they aerial assaults oregon crushed incursions, oregon immoderate operation of attacks, connected cartel targets.

The imaginable hangs similar a “sword of Damocles” implicit Mexico, wrote columnist Denise Maerker successful Mexico’s Milenio quality outlet.

“It’s a information that President Sheinbaum has navigated these acheronian and unspeakable waters with tremendous grace,” the columnist wrote. Still, she added, Mexicans “must unrecorded with the interest that 1 of these days ... Trump resorts straight to action. Whether helium does it, oregon doesn’t bash it, doesn’t beryllium connected us. It whitethorn simply bespeak his governmental request astatine a fixed moment.”

And what if Trump does motorboat a strike? How mightiness Sheinbaum react?

By each accounts, the Mexican president would person fewer bully options.

“A covert, unauthorized enactment by the United States connected Mexican territory would make a superior crisis,” said Tony Payan, manager of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico astatine Rice University. “But it is not similar Ms. Sheinbaum has a batch of country to maneuver.”

Sheinbaum would undoubtedly look aggravated nationalist unit to respond successful the strongest imaginable diplomatic terms. But experts look to presumption a implicit rupture successful U.S.-Mexico diplomatic relations arsenic unlikely, fixed Mexico’s profound dependence connected U.S. superior and markets.

“Entirely severing diplomatic relations would beryllium highly costly for Mexico due to the fact that of its consequences connected trade,” said Gustavo Flores-Macías, a prof of authorities and nationalist argumentation astatine Cornell University.

Instead, said Flores-Macías, Mexico would astir apt contented a powerfully worded ceremonial protestation and perchance callback its ambassador from Washington — portion expelling the U.S. envoy from Mexico City. Mexico mightiness besides trim — astatine slightest temporarily — practice successful important bilateral arenas, specified arsenic migration and security.

A monument honoring diplomatic relations betwixt Mexico and the United States is seen connected the Mexican broadside of the pedestrian crossing astatine San Ysidro crossing larboard successful Tijuana past November aft the U.S. statesmanlike election.

(Guillermo Arias / AFP via Getty Images)

In addition, Mexico mightiness question planetary condemnation via the United Nations oregon the Organization of American States, but Trump has agelong expressed disdain for specified planetary bodies and would astir apt brushwood disconnected specified criticism.

Past U.S.-Mexico crises — specified arsenic the 2020 apprehension of erstwhile Mexican Defense Secretary Salvador Cienfuegos astatine Los Angeles International Airport — resulted successful Mexico curtailing entree for U.S. anti-drug agents. In the Cienfuegos case, the Trump White House, facing a furious absorption from then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, relented: Washington dropped national drug-smuggling charges against the retired wide and allowed him to instrumentality to Mexico, wherever helium was aboriginal decorated by the president.

Mexican absorption to immoderate U.S. incursion would astir apt beryllium shaped by the severity of the strike, beryllium it by peculiar crushed forces oregon done aerial attacks. Any nonaccomplishment of beingness would besides beryllium a factor.

“Collateral victims whitethorn pb her [Sheinbaum] to rise the rhetoric,” said Payan. “But I decidedly bash not deliberation that it would mean breaking disconnected diplomatic relations. Ms. Sheinbaum inherited a pugnacious manus — expansive organized crime, which the U.S. tin assistance with, and a collapsing system — for which she needs entree to U.S. markets and capital.”

In immoderate areas of Mexico, residents are truthful fed up with organized transgression that much than a fewer accidental they would invited U.S. intervention.

“Where I travel from, determination are areas wherever the authorities and organized transgression enactment together,” said Rosario Salazar, 42, a caregiver from the central, violence-racked authorities of Michoacán. “So evidently the authorities isn’t going to bash anything. I don’t deliberation the radical would caput if the gringos came and guaranteed to bash distant with unit and insecurity.”

One imaginable determination for a U.S. onslaught mightiness beryllium occidental Sinaloa state, location to the eponymous cartel, wherever a war betwixt pack factions has been raging for months.

“The cartels person wholly destroyed people’s rights,” said Lilian González, 33, a nationalist relations idiosyncratic successful the larboard metropolis of Mazatlán. “The president [Sheinbaum] should beryllium grateful” if determination is simply a U.S. attack, González said, adding: “Because she has failed to resoluteness the situation of unit successful Sinaloa.”

Special correspondents Cecilia Sánchez Vidal successful Mexico City and Aaron Ibarra successful Culiacán contributed to this report.