Trump's transactional diplomacy is reshaping the U.S.-Taiwan relationship

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TAIPEI, Taiwan — For decades, the U.S. has played an important relation successful maintaining the delicate narration betwixt Taiwan and China, which considers Taiwan to beryllium a portion of its territory and has vowed to prosecute unification by force, if necessary. But President Trump’s “America first” ideology and usage of tariffs arsenic an economical limb suggest the medication whitethorn beryllium rewriting the rules of the U.S.-China-Taiwan playbook to suit his transactional style.

As is existent successful overmuch of the world, long-held understandings, meant to sphere peace, are abruptly up for negotiation. Although the U.S. does not admit Taiwan arsenic an autarkic nation, it has been contractually obligated to enactment the island’s defence programme with weapons income for years. It’s portion of an authoritative argumentation known arsenic “strategic ambiguity,” intended to deter China from launching an onslaught and Taiwan from formally declaring independence.

Trump has not said whether the U.S. volition support Taiwan successful the future, but helium has complained astir the relationship, and his medication has said that the land should rise its defence fund to 10% of its gross home product.

A antheral successful azygous and different successful suit and necktie basal adjacent the cockpit of a combatant pitchy with its canopy open

The president has besides criticized Taiwan’s cutting-edge semiconductor manufacture for “stealing” U.S. concern and threatened tariffs connected Taiwanese chips. Then, connected March 3, helium announced a $100-billion concern from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., oregon TSMC, shaper of the world’s astir precocious microchips, to physique 5 caller facilities successful the United States. The determination has immoderate radical successful Taiwan wondering however overmuch the land ideology tin number connected the United States, and what the U.S. mightiness expect successful return.

Chieh-ting Yeh, manager of the deliberation vessel US Taiwan Watch, said that since Trump took office, his conversations person shifted from a absorption connected shared values specified arsenic ideology and quality rights to bargaining ability.

“Privately everybody is thinking, ‘OK, if it’s going to beryllium a transactional benignant of relationship, however bash we play that game?’” Yeh said. “In the abbreviated term, I conscionable don’t deliberation anybody tin accidental for definite what’s going to happen.”

The quality astir TSMC, which has a estimation arsenic Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” has sparked heated statement implicit whether the company’s program to physique successful the United States could undermine nationalist security.

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou attacked existent President William Lai for supporting the deal: “Let’s not forget, U.S. President Donald Trump is simply a businessman, and nett comes archetypal to him. Is selling 1 TSMC enough? What other volition beryllium sold next, and what much is near to sell?” Ma wrote successful a Facebook station that garnered much than 70,000 likes.

In a quality league past week with TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei, Lai denied that the concern was a effect of U.S. unit and noted that Trump had affirmed his committedness to determination stableness successful a associated connection with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba successful February.

The Taiwanese president, besides known arsenic Lai Ching-te, has said the land volition purpose to summation defence spending to 3% of GDP this twelvemonth from astir 2.4% the twelvemonth before. Although that fig falls acold abbreviated of what the Trump medication has called for, experts successful Taiwan said expanding the fund to 10% of GDP would beryllium impossible.

In the meantime, Taiwan’s opposition-backed legislature wants to chopped defence spending, criticizing the existent medication for wasteful spending, corruption and a combative attack to China that it believes is driving the land person to war.

President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conscionable successful the White House connected Feb. 28, 2025.

“Taiwan is taking it with a atom of salt. I deliberation there’s an knowing that nice, big, circular numbers make bargaining positions, but whitethorn not beryllium the last numbers that are agreed on,” said Wen-ti Sung, a governmental idiosyncratic astatine Australia National University who specializes successful cross-strait relations.

Fears of American abandonment person been underscored by the U.S. about-face nether Trump connected the warfare successful Ukraine, which Taiwan has watched intimately arsenic a barometer of U.S. reliability. “Values arsenic good arsenic longer-standing friendships are not by themselves capable safeguards for maintaining U.S. support,” Sung said.

Since taking office, Trump has called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and suspended — and past agreed to resume — U.S. subject assistance to Ukraine. When a gathering betwixt the 2 leaders, intended to motion a woody granting the U.S. a involvement successful Ukrainian minerals successful speech for continued fiscal support, dissolved into shouting, immoderate successful Taiwan took it arsenic a worrisome sign.

The slogan of “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan,” popularized by the ruling enactment aft Russia invaded Ukraine successful 2022, resurfaced connected societal media successful Taiwan aft the fallout. One idiosyncratic connected Threads commented nether a station astir Zelensky, “Taiwan needs to travel America’s lead, since we tin lone trust connected them for subject support.” Another responded, “Haven’t you seen what happened to Ukraine? Do you inactive deliberation the U.S. is reliable?”

Others person speculated that if America turns distant from Ukraine and Europe, determination could beryllium much resources and willingness to enactment its allies successful Asia and antagonistic China: “Comparing Ukraine to Taiwan is simply a wholly flawed analogy,” James Hsieh, a Taiwanese governmental commentator, wrote connected societal media. “Personally, I anticipation the Russia-Ukraine warfare ends rapidly truthful that the U.S. tin afloat hole for the Indo-Pacific.”

Ukrainians and supporters successful Taiwan protestation against Russia's invasion.

Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee to beryllium undersecretary of Defense for policy, precocious reiterated the telephone for Taiwan to summation its defence spending successful a confirmation hearing. But helium besides said that the U.S. should absorption connected combating China’s increasing subject influence, and that losing Taiwan to China “would beryllium a catastrophe for American interests.”

“What tin Taiwan larn from this?” asked William Chih-tung Chung, an adjunct probe chap astatine Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research. “First, don’t clash with Trump directly. Second, hold and hold for change. In the meantime, we conscionable person to prosecute with him and negotiate.”

Chung points retired that this isn’t the archetypal clip Taiwan has faced losing U.S. support. In 1979, the U.S. severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan arsenic it pursued a person narration with China.

But the deterioration of U.S.-China relations successful the past decennary has enhanced the value of Taiwan, which helium believes volition proceed to play an important relation arsenic a antiaircraft stronghold successful the Asia-Pacific portion and a person successful spot technology, a relation that cannot beryllium erased successful the adjacent 4 years.

“As agelong arsenic the U.S. maintains a antagonistic stance toward China, Taiwan remains a important bargaining spot for the U.S.,” Chung said. “Of people there’s a batch of uncertainty with Trump, and everyone is anxiously waiting. But I deliberation there’s nary request to beryllium overly pessimistic oregon overly optimistic — what matters is that we find a beardown transportation with the Trump administration’s planetary strategy.”

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