The world after China takes Taiwan: America humiliated. Beijing rules new world order. Kim Jong Un strikes South Korea. A chilling vision of how the world as we know it changes if President Xi finally claims island nation

China deployed dozens of warships and planes to encircle the land federation of Taiwan successful menacing, large-scale warfare games earlier this week.

Chilling outer pictures besides revealed what look to beryllium Beijing's 'invasion barges' - gargantuan platforms that link to signifier a mobile pier that could alteration thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles to onshore connected Taiwan's shores. 

The multi-day subject drills forced Taipei to respond by scrambling combatant jets and warships of their ain to dissuade immoderate overzealous members of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) from posing a superior threat.

But these alarming exercises were conscionable the latest summation to a worrying inclination that has seen Beijing turn progressively assertive toward its land neighbour successful caller years.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), headed by authoritarian President Xi Jinping, sees Taiwan arsenic a renegade state to beryllium brought backmost nether Beijing's control, by unit if necessary.

But Taiwan's elected Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presides implicit a self-governing, antiauthoritarian nine and has sought adjacent ties with the US, hoping its political, subject and economical heft volition support Xi's expansionist tendencies astatine bay.

American deterrence, the reliance of China's export system connected the West and the outgo of a subject cognition to prehend Taiwan has led astir analysts to suggest Beijing is much apt to usage little nonstop means to unit Taipei.

But politicians, subject chiefs and manufacture leaders the satellite implicit tin nary longer spend to disregard the imaginable of a full-scale penetration - a script which would shingle the foundations of the satellite arsenic we cognize it and could good trigger a Third World War. 

Now, as Donald Trump pushes Taiwan to wage much for its defence portion slapping it with important commercialized tariffs, interest is increasing that the US President whitethorn statesman treating Taipei - arsenic 1 expert enactment it - 'as a pawn to commercialized with China to execute his interests'.

With the assistance of planetary security, improvement and Indo-Pacific experts, we analyse what would hap if China were to propulsion disconnected a palmy storming of Taiwan and wrest backmost power of its land neighbour.

Taiwan is simply a tiny land adrift successful the South China Sea astir 100 kilometres disconnected China's southeastern shores, positioned astatine the crossroads of East Asia.

Measuring conscionable 36,000 quadrate kilometres, Taiwan is astir 1/25th the size of mainland China, oregon astir fractional the size of Scotland - but it is simply a territory of immense strategical and economical importance.

The land is simply a manufacturing and technological powerhouse that occupies a captious portion of the planetary proviso chain, portion the Taiwan Strait - a constrictive waterway separating it from mainland China - is simply a cardinal commercialized way facilitating the question of goods, electronics and lipid passim Asia and beyond.

Taiwan is besides an integral subordinate of the 'first land chain', a ringing of territories moving from Japan to the Philippines, each of which is to immoderate grade allied with the US to signifier a earthy obstruction against Chinese subject enlargement into the Pacific.

For each these reasons and more, a palmy penetration of Taiwan by China would herald the advent of a caller satellite order, according to Professor Kerry Jones, Director of the Lau China Institute astatine King's College London (KCL) and erstwhile First Secretary astatine the British Embassy successful Beijing. 

China expands its power of Indo-Pacific

This satellite bid would spot China 'move from a challenger and rival into an aggressor and an force of the governmental West', Jones said.

In sheer subject terms, seizing Taiwan - oregon the Republic of China (ROC) - would spend the People's Republic of China (PRC) a strengthened level from which it could further task aerial and naval power. 

This successful crook would let Beijing to strictly constabulary cardinal transport and commercialized routes, thereby cultivating large power implicit the system of its neighbours and rivals, having shattered the archetypal land chain. 

Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow successful Indo‑Pacific Security astatine the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think-tank, said: 'If the PRC controls Taiwan, it gains an vantage successful controlling air, aboveground and sub-surface areas astride the main shipping and aerial routes connecting Japan and South Korea to their sources of captious imports -especially vigor - and markets. 

'It would beryllium enabled to situation the US Navy much efficaciously crossed the Pacific, due to the fact that it could determination submarines retired past the archetypal land concatenation with much security.'

Sean Kenji Starrs, Lecturer successful International Development astatine KCL, added that specified a script 'would astir apt mean the extremity of state of navigation successful the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait' altogether.

'These waterways relationship for the bulk of the world's electronics commercialized and overmuch else, including to Western Europe and the United States. It would besides marque it overmuch much hard for the US to blockade the Straight of Malacca,' helium said. 

This strait, a agelong of h2o betwixt Malaysia and Singapore, connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans and constitutes the shortest shipping way betwixt East Asia and the Middle East connected which China's export system is heavy dependent. 

Beijing is acutely alert of this vulnerability, fearing that a US blockade of the strait could woody a punishing stroke to its economy. 

As Starrs points out, taking Taiwan would mean Beijing would trim the likelihood of this anemic constituent being exploited. 

'All of this would fundamentally mean that China could go a adjacent rival to the United States successful East Asia, frankincense the extremity of US hegemony successful East Asia,' helium concluded.

US estimation is destroyed, power successful Indo-Pacific eroded

A palmy Chinese penetration and annexation of Taiwan presupposes 1 of 2 seismic events - a full decision of the US subject successful the Indo-Pacific theatre, oregon Washington abruptly abandoning a decades-long information concern with Taipei. 

Both scenarios would beryllium catastrophic for America, and by extension, Western interests successful the highly strategical region.

Washington's power successful the portion would evaporate arsenic Asian nations who person agelong sought to physique beardown strategical ties with America, some subject and economic, would beryllium forced into a drastic rethink of their allegiances.

Meanwhile, assorted Western-aligned transcontinental information alliances specified arsenic the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, US), AUKUS (Australia, UK, US)- not to notation NATO - would beryllium near reeling from their disastrous nonaccomplishment to safeguard Taipei.

Starrs explained however an American defeat, oregon refusal to uphold its information commitments to Taiwan successful the look of a Chinese attack, would dispel immoderate conception that the US remains the world's ascendant governmental and subject power. 

'National populations successful Japan and South Korea, fto unsocial Philippines, Indonesia and elsewhere would apt displacement their sentiment successful favour of China owed to the monolithic displacement successful powerfulness this would entail - different they would hazard being the adjacent unfortunate of Chinese attack. 

'Political and economical elites of US allies would inactive privation to integrate with the US, but they would beryllium nether unit to person amended relations with China,' helium said.  

'If the US mislaid and China successfully occupied Taiwan, past this would entail the subject decision of Japan and South Korea, and astir apt Australia and NATO arsenic well.'

Starrs went connected to posit that China could adjacent question to prehend much territory if it were to instrumentality Taiwan without important losses.

'Chinese subject beingness successful Taiwan would importantly diminish Japanese and South Korean information and summation vulnerability to further attack. Certainly, China would spell for the Japanese-controlled Senkaku/Daiyou Islands and possibly more.' 

North Korea emboldened

Just arsenic a palmy penetration of Taiwan would entail a illness of the US subject deterrent and a weakening of the West's allies successful the region, it would lone service to embolden China's allies.

None much truthful than North Korea, whose dynastic, dictatorial person Kim Jong Un maintains his grip connected powerfulness by keeping his citizens perpetually fearful and hateful of the US and its allies - peculiarly South Korea, which Kim has called his nation's 'principal enemy'.

Pyongyang has successful caller months chopped itself disconnected wholly from the South, detonating the fewer roads and railways that kept the 2 connected portion mining the frontier on the demilitarised zone.

Kim besides continues to determination resources into subject modernisation and arms manufacturing, up to and including his burgeoning atomic arsenal.

Shetler-Jones was sceptical that Kim would question to invade oregon onslaught South Korea, arguing that the endurance of his authorities is contingent connected keeping his subjugated colonisation successful a changeless authorities of fearfulness and anticipation of an existential clash, alternatively than actively pursuing a conflict.

But Starrs said North Korea could perchance play a cardinal relation successful a Chinese ploy to prehend Taiwan and would beryllium compelled to enactment if specified a struggle were to interruption out.

'I deliberation the much apt script would beryllium China encouraging oregon pressuring North Korea to invade South Korea successful bid to expel US troops... to unfastened a caller beforehand against the US truthful that China could much easy instrumentality Taiwan,' helium said.

Markus Garlauskas, a erstwhile US National Intelligence Officer for North Korea, has besides argued that a struggle implicit Taiwan would 'almost surely go a region-wide war' that engulfs the Korean Peninsula, with Pyongyang expected to prehend the accidental to 'settle scores with Seoul' and 'exploit the vulnerabilities of a distracted United States'.

Fate of the Taiwanese People

Despite China's insistence that Taiwan is thing much than a renegade province, sentiment polls person consistently shown that the overwhelming bulk of Taiwanese radical consciousness they person a chiseled identity.

Surveys conducted by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation successful December 2024 and January 2025 showed 76.1% of adults aged 20 and supra said they spot themselves arsenic Taiwanese.

Just 10.1% of respondents said they felt they had a Chinese identity, and 9% felt some Taiwanese and Chinese. 

More than fractional (51.8%) privation to spot Taiwan unafraid afloat independency from China arsenic an internationally recognised state, and different 4th (24.2%) privation to support the presumption quo, successful which Taiwan maintains its implicit autonomy from China arsenic a self-governing nation. 

By contrast, conscionable 13.3% of radical said they'd similar Taiwan to reunite with the mainland. 

If China were to equine a palmy invasion, we can accidental with comparative certainty what would hap to the island's flourishing antiauthoritarian society.

One lone has to look astatine what transpired successful Hong Kong aft China passed its sweeping National Security Law successful 2020 successful effect to wide pro-democracy protests the twelvemonth before. 

Starrs said Taiwan would look a akin crackdown connected idiosyncratic freedoms, societal and governmental thought and mobility - but to a acold harsher degree, fixed that China would person had to prehend the land by force.

'If China were to successfully annex Taiwan, they would person to unopen down ideology arsenic they did successful Hong Kong aft the transition of the National Security Law successful June 2020. 

'They would person to prohibition escaped and just elections, unopen down oregon nationalise the media, betterment the acquisition system, summation power of the Internet, and - dissimilar successful Hong Kong - would person to person a monolithic subject beingness to incorporate immoderate imaginable insurgencies, mutinies oregon adjacent conscionable fashionable thoroughfare protests.

'They astir apt would besides person to importantly tighten migration and emigration controls to effort and forestall a encephalon drain, since galore precocious income and highly educated Taiwanese person a Green card, US oregon different citizenship.'

Shetler-Jones added: 'Given the agelong play implicit which Taiwanese person enjoyed de facto independence, it is apt that absorption to authoritarian governance would beryllium stiffer and the crackdown would beryllium much severe.'

How could China instrumentality Taiwan? 

Recent years person seen Beijing standard up the frequence and strength of its warfare games astir the land - arsenic evidenced earlier this week.

Meanwhile, the PLA has warned that 'the theatre's troops are acceptable to combat astatine each times and tin combat astatine immoderate clip to resolutely smash immoderate signifier of 'Taiwan independence' and overseas interference attempts.' 

Taiwan's confederation with the US has afforded it a bristling subject arsenal equipped with state-of-the-art American aerial and oversea defence systems, manned by highly trained troops.

But successful a consecutive combat betwixt the mightiness of China's PLA and Taiwan's equipped forces, Goliath would inevitably triumph implicit David - albeit astatine large sacrifice. 

There are two scenarios that defence analysts thin to settee connected erstwhile reasoning astir China's subject options against Taiwan. 

The archetypal is simply a naval blockade - a maneuver which would correspond an tremendous situation for an land federation that is reliant upon its ports for survival, fixed it tin lone nutrient astir a 3rd of its nutrient domestically. 

Taiwan is wrong casual scope of the PLA Air Force, and China's navy would beryllium susceptible of encircling the land arsenic demonstrated by assorted warfare games and simulated blockades. 

Beijing's warships run a ample quantity of anti-ship cruise missiles that would airs a large menace to Taiwan's naval forces. China tin besides equip its combatant planes with assorted weapons designed to instrumentality retired naval vessels, portion the country's land-based rocket forces wield the mighty DF-26B - which has a scope of up to 2,500 miles.

The Chinese navy would apt motorboat dozens of missiles successful salvos designed to get astatine the people determination simultaneously portion preventing immoderate subject oregon humanitarian assistance from reaching Taiwan by sea.

This maneuver would alteration Xi's equipped forces to contradict Taiwan the captious nutrient and minerals that the land relies upon, portion simultaneously presenting a antiaircraft nightmare for Taipei and immoderate of its partners trying to interruption the blockade. The extremity would beryllium to coerce Taiwan into accepting China's will.

The 2nd script is the 1 which sees China's immense army embark connected an amphibious penetration of Taiwan successful a akin manner to the D-Day landings. 

This scenario, which mightiness hap arsenic an hold of the naval blockade, would see an extended preparatory play that Beijing would beryllium incapable to hide. An penetration would necessitate – astatine a blimpish estimation – betwixt fractional a million, and a cardinal personnel, arsenic good arsenic the transport ships to get them to Taiwan.

At immoderate point, the airspace implicit the Taiwan Strait would beryllium closed and China's army, aerial force, and navy would statesman a massed aerial and rocket attack. 

Cruise and ballistic missiles would beryllium directed astatine Taiwan's aerial defences, logistics hubs, airfields, and authorities buildings successful the anticipation of decapitating its quality to support and coordinate resistance. Once the PLA's enactment was satisfied that Taiwan's defences had been sufficiently softened, it would statesman the penetration successful earnest. 

The archetypal question whitethorn good see helicopter-borne peculiar forces arsenic good arsenic the PLA Airborne Forces, which person their ain armoured vehicles (APCs) designed to beryllium parachuted into combat, and would apt dwell of soldiers from the Chinese army's Eastern Theatre Command arsenic good arsenic the Marine Corps.

The APCs would beryllium packed onto amphibious battle ships, and those that past Taiwan's fierce defences would disembark their APCs to steam onto the people beach. 

Once connected the formation they would look fierce absorption from Taiwan's equipped forces successful prepared defences, but China has a immense vantage successful presumption of the fig of bodies it tin perpetrate to the fight. 

Now, China's 'invasion barges' marque the imaginable of an amphibious landing yet much alarming. 

'These barges whitethorn alteration Chinese forces to marque landings adjacent connected the much challenging terrains of the Taiwanese coastline,' said Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident chap astatine the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub.

This, helium added, 'gives the Chinese subject a greater enactment of imaginable landing spots, and spreads Taiwanese defences thin'.

Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC obtained by AFP showed the strategy deployed successful the waters disconnected Zhanjiang metropolis of Guangdong, confederate China, astatine the extremity of March.

In a programme connected authorities TV past period discussing the barges, subject commentator Wei Dongxu touted their quality to transport ample numbers of dense instrumentality onto an land 'while keeping their feet dry'.

'Once the naval and aerial forces efficaciously power the aerial and sea, past this... barge volition appear,' helium said.

'It tin beryllium said that it is simply a motion of victory.'

Experts anticipation Taiwan volition ne'er spot specified violence. Starrs and Shetler-Jones some said the likelihood of a Chinese penetration of Taiwan remains precise low.

Although they admitted that Beijing could prosecute little drastic measures, specified arsenic a naval blockade of Taiwan, cyber attacks, economical sanctions and a ramping up of different diplomatic and governmental pressures, they felt that a full-scale onslaught would prove excessively costly for China's economy and trigger all-out warfare with America. 

'(China taking Taiwan) would beryllium truthful disastrous for the US that they would not let it, they would bring the afloat spectrum of US powerfulness to forestall success, up to and including usage of atomic weapons,' Starrs said.

But Professor Brown stressed that Beijing's ongoing warfare games and progressively antagonistic rhetoric implicit Taiwan increases the likelihood that 1 oregon a bid of errors could rapidly spiral, with cataclysmic consequences.

'These (blockades and subject drills) are happening truthful regularly - it shows that China wishes to support intelligence unit connected Taiwan and to proceed to punctual the planetary assemblage of its claims and its resoluteness to spot them yet fulfilled.

'The contented with these actions is that they make plentifulness of accidental for miscalculation, misunderstanding and mistake.

'Nationalist sentiment successful China is precocious astatine the moment, but the costs presently of moving against Taiwan are very, precise high. Unless provoked, I cannot ideate that China would bash this. 

'But we are surviving successful precise worrying and uncertain times. Alas, this contented is present much unsafe than it has ever been before.'