The Numbers Game: Champions League favourites PSG set sights on final

Paris Saint-Germain person been 1 of the 2 astir awesome teams successful Europe this season, and they person their sights acceptable connected a spot successful the Champions League final.

Arsenal, though, basal successful their way.

Luis Enrique’s PSG squad whitethorn person mislaid their unbeaten tally successful Ligue 1 aft a club-record 30 matches without defeat, but their afloat absorption has been connected their semi-final necktie against the Gunners.

Ousmane Dembele’s aboriginal extremity proved decisive successful the archetypal limb astatine Emirates Stadium past week, and it means PSG person the borderline arsenic they invited Mikel Arteta’s men to the Parc des Princes connected Wednesday.

With Inter and Barcelona playing retired a thrilling 3-3 gully successful the archetypal limb of the different semi-final, Opta’s supercomputer makes PSG the favourites to spell connected and triumph the trophy this season.

PSG, who similar Luis Enrique’s aged squad Barca could perchance triumph a treble this season, travel retired connected apical successful 42% of the model’s tourney simulations.

But they person ne'er earlier won this competition, and Luis Enrique is definite to beryllium urging against immoderate complacency, particularly fixed what Arsenal did to Real Madrid successful the quarter-finals.

There is lone 1 extremity successful it, aft all.

Here, utilizing Opta insights, we preview Wednesday’s immense clash successful Paris.

What’s expected?

Both PSG and Arsenal are bidding to scope their 2nd European Cup/Champions League final, with the French broadside doing truthful successful 2019-20, and the Gunners successful 2005-06.

When winning the archetypal limb of a European necktie distant from home, PSG person lone been eliminated erstwhile (vs Manchester United successful 2018-19), portion the Gunners person ne'er progressed erstwhile losing the archetypal limb astatine home.

PSG are fixed a triumph probability of 45.4%, portion their wide chances of progressing from the necktie are ranked astatine a steadfast 80%.

Arsenal’s hopes of making the final, then, are a slim 1 successful five, though Opta’s exemplary does manus the Gunners a 30% triumph probability for the 2nd leg. A victory, of course, would not needfully beryllium capable to spot them through, with penalties required if the necktie finishes level connected aggregate.

PSG’s 1-0 triumph the archetypal limb was their archetypal ever triumph successful six attempts against Arsenal (D3 L2).

Both of their location games against the Gunners person finished 1-1 (March 1994, September 2016).

Arsenal, meanwhile, person present mislaid their past 2 visits against Rennes successful 2019 and Lens successful 2023.

The Gunners were antecedently unbeaten successful their archetypal 13 distant games against French sides successful each competitions (W8 D5).

The champion around?

Gone are the days of superstar names similar Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and Lionel Messi astatine PSG, but successful their absence, Luis Enrique has built a formidable machine.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Dembele person provided the prima power, but Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Goncalo Ramos are hardly forwards to beryllium scoffed at.

In midfield, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz and Joao Neves person been superb, with the second making 51 tackles successful this season’s Champions League, the astir by a midfielder successful a play since Arturo Vidal successful 2014-15 (52). He has besides applied 756 precocious pressures to opponents successful 2024-25, implicit 100 much than immoderate different player.

At the back, Marquinhos has marshalled a defence that includes the superb full-back pairing of Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes.

Behind them, Gianluigi Donnarumma has shown his prime successful the Champions League. He made immoderate large saves successful the archetypal limb and was superb successful the quarter-finals against Aston Villa.

Using Opta’s expected goals connected people conceded metric, we tin spot that the Italian goalkeeper has prevented 1.8 goals successful the contention this season, from 42 shots faced (not including penalties oregon ain goals).

PSG are the second-highest scoring squad successful Europe’s apical 5 leagues crossed each competitions this term, with their 135 ranking down lone Barca’s 160.

But Luis Enrique’s squad person really registered the highest expected goals (133), portion they person had 1,012 shots, 42 much than next-best Real Madrid (970).

Only Bayern Munich (68%) person averaged much possession than PSG (67.5%), but arsenic their changeable number shows, it has been a lawsuit of possession with a intent for the French giants.

Gunning for glory

PSG person won 3 of their past 4 Champions League location games, netting 14 goals crossed those 3 victories.

However, they person mislaid doubly astatine Parc des Princes this play (vs Liverpool and Atletico Madrid), truthful Arsenal should surely not consciousness each anticipation is lost, particularly considering Arsenal person won each of their past 4 distant games successful the Champions League – the Gunners person ne'er won 5 successful a enactment connected the roadworthy crossed each European contention before, though.

Only 2 teams person ever reached the Champions League last having mislaid the archetypal limb of their semi-final necktie astatine home, though, with Ajax overcoming Panathinaikos successful 1995-96, and Arsenal’s rivals Tottenham doing the aforesaid against Ajax successful 2018-19.

Arsenal’s awesome victories implicit Madrid successful the past circular were built connected coagulated antiaircraft foundations, and expect that country of the transportation to beryllium important again for Arteta.

Of the teams to scope the Champions League quarter-finals, Arsenal person the lowest expected goals against (xGA) fig successful the contention this play (11.8). In contrast, PSG’s xGA stands astatine 15.2.

But, Arsenal cannot spend to conscionable beryllium back. At immoderate stage, they volition person to pursuit the game, and that could beryllium erstwhile they are astir susceptible to PSG’s blistering counter-attacks.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

PSG – Ousmane Dembele

Dembele was an wounded interest implicit the past week, but connected Monday the guardant returned to training.

He has been superb this season, scoring 33 goals crossed each competitions and chipping successful with a further 10 assists. Of players successful Europe’s apical 5 leagues, lone Mohamed Salah (56), Raphinha (53) and Kane (46) person registered much extremity contributions successful each competitions than Dembele’s 43.

Dembele’s victor successful the archetypal limb was his eighth extremity successful the Champions League this play – lone Zlatan Ibrahimovic has netted much successful a azygous run for PSG (10 successful 2013-14).

PSG person made 150 line-breaking passes that person breached the antiaircraft enactment successful the Champions League this season, 2nd lone to Bayern (156). Of those, 25 person been made by Dembele, the joint-most of immoderate subordinate this campaign.

Arsenal – Declan Rice

As good arsenic completing the joint-most passes connected either squad successful the archetypal limb (50), Rice made the astir line-breaking passes successful the last 3rd (six).

He leads each Gunners players successful the Champions League this play for line-breaking passes starring to some shots (seven) and goals (three).

Rice’s performances this play person seen him cement his spot among the world’s elite midfielders, with his brace of sensational free-kicks mounting Arsenal connected their mode to defeating Madrid successful the quarter-final.

Arteta volition request different immense show from the England planetary connected Wednesday.