Taiwan on edge after Pope Francis's death, closely watching Vatican-China relations

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan - Some successful Taiwan are watching with increasing unease as the Catholic Church prepares to elite a new leader following the decease of Pope Francis. The Holy See is the lone European authorities that maintains diplomatic relations with Taipei, but immoderate fearfulness the increasing ties betwixt the Vatican and Beijing could alteration things.

Taiwan is location to less than 300,000 Catholics. By contrast, estimates enactment the fig of Catholics successful communist China astatine anyplace betwixt 8 and 12 million, with different 390,000 successful Chinese-ruled Hong Kong. Despite these figures, the Holy See continues to admit Taiwan arsenic the sole "China."

After Pope Francis’ death, Taiwan’s President William Lai rapidly said helium planned to be the funeral. A abbreviated clip later, however, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that erstwhile Vice President and devout Catholic Chen Chien-jen volition beryllium Taiwan’s envoy. 

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This representation taken connected August 10, 2018, shows worshippers lining up to person beatified communion during a Catholic wide successful the Holy Spirit Church successful Yanshui, astir an hour's thrust from the confederate metropolis of Tainan. With a transverse rising from a reddish pagoda extortion and 2 lion statues guarding the entrance, a Catholic religion successful confederate Taiwan could easy beryllium mistaken for 1 of the ubiquitous temples dotting the island. There are much than 1,000 churches crossed the island, but the Holy Spirit Church is peculiarly unique.  (SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)

According to Taipei-based lawyer and governmental hazard expert Ross Feingold, Taiwan volition beryllium disappointed that President Lai volition miss this gathering of satellite leaders. "The precedent exists for Taiwan’s president to be a pope’s funeral. In 2005, then-President Chen Shui-bian attended John Paul II’s funeral, so," helium claimed, "it’s harmless to presume President Lai’s squad inquired whether Lai could be Francis’ funeral, and arsenic harmless to presume the Holy See’s effect was a antagonistic one."

After Pope Francis took bureau successful 2013, the Vatican began to physique ties with Beijing. In 2018, it signed a arguable statement with China connected the assignment of bishops. The deal—renewed and extended respective times—gives some sides input connected bishop selection, an effort to span the disagreement betwixt China’s state-run Catholic Church and an underground religion loyal to Rome. Vatican officials importune the statement is pastoral, not political. Still, for Taiwan, it is seen arsenic a warning sign.

This representation taken connected August 10, 2018, shows a motorcyclist riding past the Holy Spirit Church successful Yanshui, astir an hour's thrust from the confederate metropolis of Tainan.  (SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)

China, which chopped ties with the Holy See successful 1951, demands that each countries extremity diplomatic relations with Taiwan earlier establishing relations with Beijing. Taiwan’s authoritative allies present fig but 12, and the Holy See is its astir symbolically important diplomatic partner.

But Thomas Tu, a Vatican diplomacy adept astatine Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, told Fox News Digital that fears of an imminent power are overblown. "This isn’t conscionable astir politics—it’s astir the planetary Catholic mission," Tu said. "The Vatican has survived empires. It’s patient." Tu cited the Vatican’s narration with Vietnam arsenic grounds of pragmatic patience. China and Vietnam bash not person ceremonial ties, but the Vatican maintains a high-level spiritual typical there.

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People be a Christmas wide astatine the Xishiku Catholic Church successful Beijing connected December 24, 2023.  (Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Image)

Pope Francis believed that engagement with China, nevertheless imperfect, is preferable to nothing. Francis was the archetypal pope to alert done Chinese airspace and famously sent greetings to President Xi Jinping in 2014. On his sojourn to Mongolia successful 2023, the pontiff besides sent a "warm greeting to the noble Chinese people."

Each overture to Beijing has drawn disapproval from wrong the Church, peculiarly from outspoken China critics, specified arsenic 93-year-old retired Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, who was arrested successful 2022 aft China imposed a National Security Law that criminalized astir each signifier of dissent successful that supposedly autonomous peculiar administrative region. Zen's passport was precocious returned to him by authorities truthful helium could be the pope's funeral.

Zen and others presumption immoderate warming of ties with Beijing arsenic kowtowing to an officially atheist regime.

Pope Francis greets the radical of China arsenic helium concludes Mass successful the Hun Theatre connected September 3, 2023, successful Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.  (Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/Getty Images)

Since 1957, Beijing, via its Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, has kept a choky leash connected millions of Chinese Catholics. Pope Francis accepted immoderate compromises with China, but the Vatican wants autonomy successful spiritual matters, which whitethorn necessitate a occurrence to execute nether China’s one-party dictatorship.

Some observers suggest that Beijing whitethorn yet let much abstraction for the Vatican, but immoderate ceremonial woody would necessitate the Holy See to sever ties with Taiwan, a non-negotiable prerequisite for China. 

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With a caller pope being elected successful the adjacent month, immoderate successful Taiwan are disquieted astir a shift, but fewer experts judge the adjacent pontiff volition marque immoderate hasty decisions. "There’s nary rush," said Dr. Chang Ching, a Senior Research Fellow of the ROC Society for Strategic Studies, "The Vatican knows however to wait, and China isn’t consenting yet to assistance the Chinese Catholic assemblage the aforesaid privileges Catholics bask successful astir different nations. This seventy-plus-year rift is conscionable a tiny infinitesimal successful the agelong past of the Church and the adjacent longer past of Chinese civilization."