Standard deviation studies pointing Nifty at 25,000 and beyond: Anand James

Stating that modular deviation studies are so pointing to 25,000 and more, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist astatine Geojit Financial Services, says immoderate motion of slipping beneath 24,280 could beryllium taken arsenic an denotation of weakness, though confirmation whitethorn lone travel from a interruption beneath 23,850, which could trigger a 23,670–23,460 move.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

Nifty ended the week astir 1.3% higher, but bash you deliberation Friday's intra-day volatility signals that bulls are weakening? Or is 25,000 inactive imaginable adjacent week?

Standard deviation studies are so pointing to 25,000 and beyond. Friday appeared much volatile due to the fact that the beardown up-move aboriginal successful the day—marking a caller 7-day high—failed to prolong amid rejection trades. However, the adjacent close 24,350 mirrored that of the past six sessions. This allows america to clasp upside expectations for Monday’s start. That said, immoderate motion of slipping beneath 24,280 could bespeak emerging weakness, though a interruption beneath 23,850 would beryllium required to validate a determination toward 23,670–23,460. The likelihood of specified a diminution look debased astatine this point, but we stay cautious.

Defence stocks were among the biggest winners amid rising tensions with Pakistan. Will the rally sustain?

Defence stocks, which person been connected the emergence since past week, showed signs of weakness arsenic the week progressed, with the mean RSI topping retired astatine 68. The slowdown successful momentum suggests nett booking whitethorn proceed aboriginal adjacent week. However, the play mean RSI adjacent 60 inactive supports a bullish setup. The champion strategy would beryllium to participate connected expected pullbacks. Stocks similar Data Patterns, Mazagon Dock, GRSE, HAL, BDL, and Cochin Shipyard could beryllium bully bets connected dips. BEL whitethorn outperform.

Sonata Software was the biggest play gainer among BSE500 stocks. Do you expect nett booking ahead?

A multi-week consolidation breakout signals imaginable for the uptrend to widen toward 490–530. The question is not whether to re-enter, but where. Friday’s adjacent beneath Thursday’s debased indicates exhaustion successful the near-term uptrend. We similar buying connected dips with a stop-loss beneath 370. However, if the dips are chopped abbreviated and the banal swiftly closes supra 456, hazard superior whitethorn beryllium allocated.

While the Nifty has recovered fractional its losses for the year, the Nifty Smallcap 250 scale is inactive struggling. What bash the charts suggest?

On Friday, 62.4% of small-cap constituents closed supra their 50-day SMA, compared to 70.8% the erstwhile Friday. Similar declines were seen with the 20-day SMA: 47.6% versus 66.8%. This highlights the index's ongoing struggle. The play illustration shows an evening prima pattern, reflecting weakness, but the quality of a doji past week suggests cautious bargain hunting. A further 2–3% dip could amended hazard appetite.

Top trading ideas for the week:

Sumitomo Chemical (SUMICHEM) – LTP: Rs 524

View: Buy
Target: Rs 565

Stop-loss: Rs 493
After reversing from April highs, the banal recovered buyers adjacent the horizontal enactment portion of Rs 500, from wherever a reversal is underway. The MACD histogram signals exhaustion, and the SMI oscillator is nearing a crossover supra zero, indicating a bullish shift. Expect a determination to Rs 565 successful the coming weeks. Maintain a stop-loss beneath Rs 493.

Global Health (MEDANTA) – LTP: Rs 1,202

View: Buy
Target: Rs 1,270
Stop-loss: Rs 1,164
After a diminution since mid-April, the banal has formed a Dragonfly Doji connected the regular chart, accompanied by signs of MACD exhaustion—hinting astatine a imaginable reversal. We expect a determination toward Rs 1,270 successful the adjacent fewer days. Maintain a stop-loss beneath Rs 1,164.