Rosenberg: Trump takes US-Russia relations on rollercoaster ride

If I was penning a Russian connection people for 2025, Lesson One would decidedly incorporate the operation for rollercoaster: Amerikanskiye gorki.

It means, literally, American Hills.

How appropriate.

After all, with President Donald Trump present operating the ride, and Vladimir Putin pressing immoderate of the buttons, US-Russian relations person go 1 of late, with highs and lows and twists and turns.

You ne'er cognize rather wherever you are now.

Analysing geopolitical trends is hard capable astatine the champion of times. It's adjacent harder careering on connected the American Hills of the 47th US president.

When Trump returned to the White House successful January, his absorption of question was clear: helium acceptable retired to repair relations with Russia.

There were Trump/Putin telephone calls, high-level US-Russia negotiations. At 1 constituent Washington voted with Moscow against a UN solution that identified Russia arsenic the "aggressor" successful Russia's warfare against Ukraine.

Whenever the Trump medication exerted pressure, it was ever connected Kyiv, ne'er connected the Kremlin.

But a week oregon truthful agone the rollercoaster thrust began.

After Vladimir Putin had projected replacing President Volodymyr Zelensky's administration with "external governance" successful Ukraine nether the auspices of the UN, President Trump made it known that helium was "angry" with Putin.

"I was disappointed successful a definite way, immoderate of the things that were said implicit the past time oregon 2 having to bash with Zelensky," Trump commented connected 30 March. "Because erstwhile [Putin] considers Zelensky not credible, he's expected to beryllium making a woody with him. Whether you similar him oregon you don't similar him."

After a time playing play with Trump, the president of Finland, Alexander Stubb, told the Guardian newspaper: "I deliberation America, and my consciousness is besides the president of the United States, is moving retired of patience with Russia."

Trump threatened to enforce secondary tariffs of up to 50% connected Russian lipid exports if Russia was recovered to beryllium dragging its heels connected a Ukraine bid deal.

A bi-partisan radical of US senators has gone adjacent further.

They've drawn up a measure that would enforce 500% secondary tariffs connected countries that acquisition Russian oil, state and different resources.

Up to this constituent the Russian property had been welcoming the thaw successful relations betwixt Moscow and Washington. The Nezavisimaya Gazeta paper past period ran a header stating that US and Russian officials had "started speaking the aforesaid language".

This week things changed.

On Wednesday, Moskovsky Komsomolets paper accused the Trump medication of "administrative insanity… inexperience… immaturity".

It criticised the administration's "bragging and arrogance" and "its tendency to state 'huge breakthroughs' erstwhile the archetypal steps person hardly been taken".

The aforesaid day, Komsomolskaya Pravda declared: "On Ukraine talks, Donald's temper changes arsenic often arsenic the wind."

Signs, perhaps, of a acold upwind blowing betwixt Moscow and Washington?

And yet erstwhile Trump announced his sweeping tariffs this week, Russia wasn't connected the list.

Instead, US authorities had organised a sanctions waiver for a cardinal Kremlin official: Putin's overseas concern envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

Dmitriev flew into Washington for talks with the Trump administration.

A sign, perhaps, of Russia and America getting connected with the concern of… getting along?

But connected Friday, different informing from Washington to Moscow. This clip astatine a gathering of Nato overseas ministers successful Brussels.

"President Trump's not going to autumn into the trap of endless negotiations astir negotiations," said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

"We volition cognize soon enough, successful a substance of weeks, not months, whether Russia is superior astir bid oregon not."

"If they're not," helium continued, "then we'll person to re-evaluate wherever we basal and what we bash moving guardant astir it."

This followed disapproval of Russia by America's Nato allies. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said Putin "continues to obfuscate, continues to resistance his feet".

"He could judge a ceasefire now, helium continues to bombard Ukraine… We spot you, Vladimir Putin, we cognize what you are doing."

Earlier connected Friday determination were rumours that Trump and Putin were astir to talk again connected the phone. These were followed by much rumours: the White House had changed its mind.

The Kremlin said that determination were nary plans for a conversation.

But determination are reports that American companies are readying to instrumentality portion successful this year's St Petersburg Economic Forum.

Okay. Stop the ride. I request to get off.

My conclusions from each of this.

Trying to travel each twist and crook connected the US-Russia rollercoaster tin permission you giddy and confused.

Sometimes it's amended observing from a distance. It often helps successful bid to place the bigger picture.

Which is this: for months Donald Trump's squad avoided criticising Putin and Russia's full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

Key White House officials, similar peculiar envoy Steve Witkoff, person repeatedly embraced and repeated Kremlin talking points. True, Washington says it's increasing impatient with Russia and has threatened tougher sanctions connected Moscow. But it hasn't imposed any. Not yet.

Will it?

Is the Trump medication prepared to unit Moscow into ending the war? And would the Kremlin let itself to beryllium pressured into doing so?

It's a cardinal question arsenic Russia's warfare connected Ukraine continues.