Ray Dalio cites 500 years of history to sound alarm on U.S. decline, China’s rise as markets crash

Ray Dalio, the billionaire laminitis of Bridgewater Associates — the world’s largest hedge money — warned implicit the play that the planetary equilibrium of powerfulness is undergoing a historical shift, echoing patterns seen successful the emergence and autumn of past empires. In a station shared connected societal media, Dalio implied that the United States is successful a play of comparative diminution portion China is connected the rise, suggesting the satellite whitethorn beryllium entering a caller signifier of geopolitical and economical realignment.

In bid to recognize the afloat representation of however the satellite bid is changing, I would impulse you to ticker this five-minute clip, oregon the implicit 40-minute animated video called "Principles for Dealing with Changing World Order." And if you privation an adjacent much implicit explanation, you… pic.twitter.com/A5n9W7Alrv

"In bid to recognize the afloat representation of however the satellite bid is changing, I would impulse you to ticker this five-minute clip, oregon the implicit 40-minute animated video called Principles for Dealing with Changing World Order," Dalio posted connected X connected April 5. "And if you privation an adjacent much implicit explanation, you tin cheque retired my publication of the aforesaid title."

The five-minute video, which Dalio shared with his 1.1 cardinal followers, outlines findings from his survey of the 10 astir almighty empires implicit the past 500 years, including the Dutch, British, American and Chinese empires. It highlights recurring cycles of economical dominance, reserve currency status, and diminution — transitions often accompanied by struggle and fiscal instability.

A cardinal graphic from the video illustrates Dalio’s cardinal thesis: that large satellite powers emergence and autumn successful overlapping cycles, each lasting astir 250 years. The illustration maps the trajectories of the Dutch, British, and U.S. empires, each of which roseate to planetary prominence earlier entering periods of decline. The U.S., Dalio suggests, is presently successful the second signifier of its cycle, portion China is depicted arsenic an ascending power, mirroring the aboriginal stages of erstwhile hegemonies.

"Typically, these transitions person been periods of large struggle due to the fact that starring powers don't diminution without a fight," Dalio said successful the video. He added that specified cycles often statesman aft large wars and extremity successful economical bubbles, wealthiness inequality, interior strife, and eventually, outer conflict.

Dalio’s connection comes arsenic fiscal markets reel from escalating U.S.-China tensions and fears of a planetary recession. Stocks plunged worldwide connected Monday aft U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down connected sweeping tariffs and Beijing vowed to retaliate. Investors rushed to harmless havens, sending Treasury yields tumbling and prompting bets connected Federal Reserve complaint cuts.

In India, benchmark indices slumped astir 5% astatine the open, portion the MSCI Asia ex-Japan scale dropped 6.8% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 6.5%. The Nasdaq entered a carnivore marketplace past week, and commodities, including oil, person besides been hit.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell connected Friday warned the tariffs were “larger than expected” and could importantly dampen maturation and stoke inflation.

Dalio, whose macroeconomic insights person agelong drawn attraction from Wall Street and policymakers alike, did not notation existent events straight successful his post. But the timing and contented of his connection — bolstered by a ocular illustration suggesting the U.S. is successful diminution and China connected the emergence — underscore rising capitalist anxiousness astir a rapidly changing geopolitical and economical landscape.

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