Paytm Q4 Results Preview: One 97 Communications may swing to profits despite up to 13% likely drop in revenues

One 97 Communications, which operates fintech level Paytm, volition denote its Q4FY25 net connected Tuesday, with immoderate brokerages expecting the institution to plaything into profits. Profit aft taxation (PAT) is estimated to scope betwixt Rs 3.6 crore and Rs 4.5 crore, according to JM Financial and Yes Securities.

However, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) projects a nett nonaccomplishment of Rs 112 crore for the January–March quarter, though it expects the nonaccomplishment to constrictive some year-on-year and sequentially.

Paytm’s Q4FY25 gross is apt to diminution 3% to 13%, translating to a topline betwixt Rs 1,975 crore and Rs 2,199 crore.

Among the brokerages, JM Financial has the astir blimpish gross estimate, portion Yes Securities is the astir optimistic.

Here’s what brokerages recommended:

JM Financial
One 97 Communications is expected to station a nett net of Rs 4.5 crore for the 4th ended March 31, 2025, compared to a nonaccomplishment of Rs 551 crore successful the year-ago play and a nonaccomplishment of Rs 208 crore successful Q3FY25.

Paytm’s Q4FY25 gross is estimated astatine Rs 1,975 crore, reflecting a 13% YoY diminution but an 8% QoQ growth.

EBITDA is apt to stay antagonistic astatine Rs 65 crore, though that marks a 71% betterment some YoY and QoQ. The EBITDA borderline is projected to amended by 660 bps YoY and 889 bps QoQ, though it would inactive stay antagonistic astatine 3.3%.

JM estimates the company’s publication nett astatine Rs 1,108 crore, a 14% YoY diminution but a 15.6% QoQ increase, indicating improving outgo efficiencies and operational momentum.

“On a consolidated basis, gross (including Rs 100 crore UPI incentive) is expected to turn astir 8% QoQ. Contribution borderline is expected to grow by 370 bps QoQ, driven by a rising stock of fiscal services — peculiarly from higher take-rates nether the DLG exemplary successful merchant loans,” JM said successful its note.

The brokerage expects amended operating leverage owed to little worker costs to propulsion Paytm into adjusted EBITDA affirmative territory, with an adjusted EBITDA borderline of 6.1%.

Yes Securities
Yes Securities besides expects Paytm to study a affirmative PAT successful Q4FY25. It estimates gross astatine Rs 2,199 crore, marking a 3% YoY diminution but a 20% sequential growth.

EBITDA is projected astatine Rs 15.2 crore.
The brokerage clarified that the YoY gross driblet factors successful the UPI incentive.

On the outgo side, Payment Processing Charges (PPC) arsenic a percent of Payments Revenue is expected to beryllium 51%, down from 56.9% successful Q3, mostly owed to the incentive.

“We get astatine full expenses (excluding PPC and ESOP expense) rising 5% QoQ, compared with a 2% diminution successful Q3FY25, resulting successful an EBITDA borderline (excl. different income and pre-ESOP cost) of 10%, up 1200 bps QoQ,” the preview enactment said.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL)
Motilal Oswal expects Paytm to station a nett nonaccomplishment of Rs 112 crore, though the nonaccomplishment is apt to constrictive connected some YoY and QoQ bases.

Revenue is projected astatine Rs 2,098 crore, down 7.5% YoY and up 15% QoQ.

The brokerage expects operating profitability to improve, driven by little depreciation costs. It besides sees sequential maturation successful disbursements and GMV.

The enactment added that gross maturation would beryllium aided by the UPI incentive, and that EBITDA guidance would beryllium a cardinal monitorable going forward.

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