Lessons from the Myanmar earthquake: Disaster preparedness

TAIPEI, Taiwan — 
Weak gathering codes and years of authorities unrest look to person contributed to the devastation from the magnitude 7.7 Myanmar earthquake, a starring seismic information adept successful the portion said.

The Friday earthquake originated adjacent Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest metropolis of astir 1.5 million, from rubbing tectonic plates on the Sagaing fault, which runs done the halfway of the country. The temblor has killed much than 2,000 radical and injured much than 3,900.

More than 600 miles distant successful Bangkok, the Thai capital, buildings buckled. But stronger gathering codes — and region from the epicenter — near Thailand with acold little destruction.

Rescue efforts successful the portion person been hampered by collapsed buildings and bridges and roads that present pb to nowhere, and aftershocks proceed to support residents connected edge.

The catastrophe has — not amazingly — raised questions astir earthquake preparedness successful Southeast Asia and farther afield successful places specified arsenic Taiwan, which is noted for being precise proactive, and California, which is successful the midst of an earthquake “drought.”

The Times spoke with Nurul Alam, a resilient infrastructure specializer who worked astatine the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center successful Bangkok, astir what the aftermath indicates astir catastrophe preparedness successful Asia and beyond.

Rescuers enactment astatine the tract of a high-rise gathering nether operation successful Bangkok that collapsed aft the magnitude 7.7 earthquake successful neighboring Myanmar.

(Sakchai Lalit / Associated Press)

How prepared was Myanmar for the earthquake?

In 2014, Alam conducted seismic hazard assessments successful Mandalay, adjacent the epicenter of the caller earthquake. Given the city’s geographic proximity to a large responsibility line, his squad had recommended that the authorities update its gathering codes to marque structures much resilient and amended seismic contingency planning.

“I judge if they would person followed the recommendations, determination would person been little occupation now, but I don’t deliberation that that happened,” helium said. “It was already risky. The buildings were susceptible implicit determination anyways, and radical knew that this would come.”

Rescuers hunt for survivors of the 7.7 earthquake successful Naypyidaw, Myanmar.

(Aung Shine Oo / Associated Press)

Myanmar is besides peculiarly susceptible fixed that the state has been embroiled successful civil war since 2021. Millions of radical person been displaced, and authorities and aesculapian infrastructure has been crippled. Although accusation from Myanmar is tightly controlled by the ruling subject junta, assistance workers and technological organizations estimation the devastation to beryllium enormous.

How prepared was Thailand for the earthquake?

Thailand updated its earthquake gathering codes successful 2007 and released caller regulations connected seismic-resistant plan successful 2021. Most of the gathering harm from Friday’s quake was nonstructural, hitting partition walls, fixtures, energy and plumbing, Alam said. Structural beams, columns and slabs held up, contempt utmost shaking and swaying of immoderate high-rises.

That indicates to Alam that Thailand has precocious compliance with its gathering codes. However, helium said it seemed that residents were not good prepared successful presumption of however to respond and that contingency readying could assistance alleviate disruptions to roads and nationalist services. “What is commendable successful Thailand is that immoderate is successful the gathering code, I deliberation astir of the structures followed the code, and that’s wherefore the devastation was not that high,” helium said.

Eighteen radical died successful Bangkok owed to the earthquake, and 1 30-story gathering nether operation collapsed. Efforts to find astir 80 missing radical are ongoing.

How does the effect comparison with different places successful Asia?

Often areas with much earthquakes person stronger gathering codes and contingency plans, truthful they are little affected by superior tremors, Alam said. Japan, for example, has strict seismic codes and aboriginal informing systems owed to predominant earthquakes.

Taiwan, different earthquake-prone island, takes akin precautions, which helped mitigate decease and harm past twelvemonth during its strongest earthquake successful a 4th of a century. The magnitude 7.4 temblor, which could beryllium felt arsenic acold arsenic Shanghai, killed astir 18 people. A time earlier the earthquake successful Myanmar, Taiwan’s authorities staged civilian defence drills connected however to respond to a large disaster.

Some countries, Alam said, could bash much to prepare.

Demolition enactment is underway astatine a gathering collapsed by a almighty earthquake successful Hualien City, Taiwan, successful April 2024.

(Suo Takekuma / Associated Press)

Turkey, which experienced a magnitude 7.8 temblor successful 2023, has stronger earthquake codes than Bangkok, helium explained, but little compliance successful presumption of construction. He said buildings are besides much susceptible successful India, Nepal and Bangladesh. One hazard appraisal helium worked connected successful Dhaka, the superior of Bangladesh, estimated that astir 70,000 structures oregon buildings would illness from an earthquake of akin magnitude.

What does this mean for earthquake-prone places specified arsenic California?

California would astir apt fare amended successful an earthquake than galore Asian countries due to the fact that of its acquisition with earthy disasters and its beardown gathering codes and compliance, Alam said. He added that areas astatine precocious hazard of earthquakes successful the U.S. besides signifier drills much often than places specified arsenic Bangkok.

“California’s seismic past has really paved the mode for each this accusation that we person close now,” Alam said. “I deliberation Bangkok should larn from them.”

Los Angeles has touted its sweeping earthquake information ordinance — the nation’s toughest, which requires thousands of buildings to beryllium evaluated and strengthened if necessary. In 2015, the metropolis passed a landmark regularisation requiring an estimated 15,000 buildings beryllium retrofitted truthful they volition amended withstand convulsive shaking, and successful 2022, The Times reported that much than 8,000 seismically susceptible buildings had been retrofitted crossed the metropolis astatine an estimated outgo of $1.3 billion. Last year, however, The Times reported that L.A.’s gathering retrofit information person been outdated for years.

Buildings collapsed onto cars during the Northridge earthquake successful 1994.

(U.S. Geological Survey)

What other tin cities bash to amended prepare?

Alam said elaborate seismic hazard and hazard assessments tin assistance find whether the standards for constructing caller buildings request to beryllium improved. These surveys should beryllium done early, helium said, due to the fact that it tin instrumentality years to alteration gathering codes, which are usually updated by the authorities each 5 years.

Existing infrastructure tin besides beryllium retrofitted to marque the susceptible buildings much resilient, peculiarly those that person already been damaged by earthquakes. Usually the retrofitting disbursal falls wrong 30% of the full reconstruction cost, helium said, and the enactment tin beryllium done successful stages to support the installation successful use.

“You cannot halt earthquakes, right? You tin lone beryllium harmless wherever we marque our structures and our different facilities stronger and retrofitted against those benignant of disasters,” Alam said.

He said that whereas seismic issues received a batch of attraction astatine the commencement of the century, concerns astir the effects of clime alteration began to overshadow them astir a decennary ago.

“It’s connected the backmost shelf. Nobody truly is disquieted astir it until determination are large earthquakes happening. It’s not lone successful Thailand, it’s really each astir the world,” helium said. “This mightiness beryllium a wake-up telephone for governments.”