Is Ivory Coast's red card politics an own goal for democracy?

Even a stellar planetary concern vocation cannot hole you for the hard realities of authorities successful Ivory Coast, wherever immoderate are questioning the antiauthoritarian credentials of the West African federation astir celebrated for being the shaper of overmuch of the world's cocoa and immoderate of its finest footballers.

That is the achy acquisition Tidjane Thiam is learning arsenic helium waits to spot whether deal-making successful the corridors of powerfulness and fashionable unit from the thoroughfare tin rescue his bid to go president of Ivory Coast.

Seemingly relentless advancement towards the predetermination acceptable for this October came to a juddering halt connected 22 April erstwhile a justice ruled that the 62-year-old had mislaid his Ivorian citizenship by taking French nationality decades antecedently and not revoking it until excessively precocious to suffice for this year's vote.

Moving backmost to Ivory Coast successful 2022 aft much than 2 decades successful planetary finance, Thiam had instantly been seen arsenic a imaginable contender to win existent caput of authorities Alassane Ouattara who, astatine 83, is present successful the last twelvemonth of his 3rd word of office.

A scion of a accepted noble family and a large nephew of the country's revered founding President, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, helium had impressed arsenic a apical authorities authoritative and curate successful the 1990s, overseeing infrastructure improvement and extremist economical reforms.

A subject coup past pushed Thiam to question a caller vocation abroad, which culminated successful high-profile stints arsenic main enforcement of UK security elephantine Prudential and past the banking radical Credit Suisse.

But returning location astatine last, 3 years ago, helium embarked connected a dependable beforehand towards the adjacent Ivorian statesmanlike election.

After the decease successful 2023 of erstwhile President Henri Konan Bédié, long-serving person of the absorption Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), Thiam was perfectly positioned to instrumentality his spot and past connected 17 April this twelvemonth helium was chosen arsenic the party's campaigner for the upcoming statesmanlike race.

That was nary warrant of victory, and particularly if - arsenic seems rather plausible Ouattara opts to tally for a 4th term, backed by each the assets and advantages of incumbency and a way grounds of 4 successive years of yearly economical maturation supra 6%.

However, Thiam stood retired arsenic the premier alternative.

As an hostile of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), helium offered Ivorian voters the accidental to alteration their government.

Yet with his centrist authorities and coagulated technocratic credentials, his candidacy offered reassuring competence and the imaginable of continuing the awesome economical advancement that Ouattara has piloted since 2011.

Now that imaginable trajectory is blocked. If the tribunal determination stands - and Ivorian instrumentality offers nary enactment of entreaty for this peculiar contented - Thiam volition beryllium retired of October's contest.

It is simply a contention from which past tribunal convictions person already excluded 3 different salient absorption figures - erstwhile President Laurent Gbagbo, erstwhile Prime Minister Guillaume Soro and a erstwhile minister, Charles Blé Goudé - each cardinal actors successful the governmental crises and civilian conflicts that brutally paralysed the advancement of Ivory Coast betwixt 1999 and 2011.

The imaginable present is that Ouattara oregon immoderate chosen RHDP successor campaigner volition attack the predetermination without facing immoderate heavyweight governmental challenge.

That tin lone deepen Ivorians' already wide fashionable disillusionment with the country's governmental establishment.

This is against the wider discourse of a West Africa wherever the extremist anti-politics rhetoric of the soldiers who person seized powerfulness successful Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger already finds a sympathetic assemblage among galore disenchanted young people.

That truly matters successful societies where, typically, three-quarters of the colonisation is nether 35.

Amidst this situation for West African democracy, determination person been immoderate moments of encouragement.

In Liberia successful 2023 and successful Senegal and Ghana past year, incumbent governments were voted out, successful escaped and just elections whose results were accepted by each contestants without argument.

The Senegalese result, successful particular, owed overmuch to the monolithic enthusiastic mobilisation of young people.

Many hoped that Ivory Coast could connection a further affirmative illustration of antiauthoritarian prime and the connection of change, and an illustration that mightiness beryllium each the much influential due to the fact that the state is simply a prosperous determination powerhouse.

It is the economical motor of the CFA franc azygous currency bloc and too the cocoa industry, it is besides a cardinal hub for concern services and concern and a starring governmental dependable successful the determination grouping, the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).

What happens successful Ivory Coast truly matters and is wide noticed, crossed West Africa and indeed, besides close crossed francophone Africa much generally.

Ouattara is 1 of the continent's astir salient statesmen, commanding wide respect internationally too.

And yet present the run-up to the country's important adjacent statesmanlike predetermination has go ensnared successful a instrumentality mentation of the individuality authorities that truthful soured the bitter disputes and instability of the 1990s and 2000s.

Back then, the governments of archetypal Bédié and past Gbagbo utilized the contentious "ivoirité", meaning "Ivorian-ness" instrumentality to unopen Ouattara retired of lasting for the presidency connected the grounds that his household allegedly had overseas origins.

It was lone successful 2007 that the authorities scrapped the prohibition connected his candidacy and lone successful 2016 - erstwhile helium was already successful bureau - that a caller constitution astatine past ended the request that the stated parents of statesmanlike candidates beryllium native-born Ivorians.

The poisonous mobilisation of individuality issues had been a large contributing origin to the civilian wars, thoroughfare unit and bluish separatist partition that brutally scarred Ivory Coast for much than a decade, up to 2011, astatine a outgo of thousands of lives.

Today the state feels acold from specified large-scale conflict.

There is nary fashionable appetite for a instrumentality to confrontation and politicians are staying good distant from the incendiary rhetoric of the past.

But the Thiam saga shows however individuality issues, adjacent successful a much legalistic signifier and successful this hopefully much peaceful era, tin inactive measurement heavily.

Ivory Coast lone permits dual nationality nether definite constricted conditions.

So successful its 22 April ruling, an Abidjan tribunal declared that, nether the presumption of a little-used post-independence law, Thiam had automatically mislaid his Ivorian citizenship astir 4 decades agone erstwhile helium acquired French nationality - aft respective years' survey successful Paris.

Although helium officially surrendered that this February, and frankincense automatically recovered his archetypal citizenship, this was excessively precocious for inclusion connected this year's registry of eligible voters oregon candidates.

In vain, his lawyers had argued that, done his father, Thiam had French nationality from commencement - which, if accepted, would exempt him from the dual nationality ban.

Seeking to item the absurdity and inconsistencies of the situation, helium argued that, logically, the state should present manus backmost its prized 2024 Africa Cup of Nations shot rubric due to the fact that galore of the players besides person French nationality.

"If we use the instrumentality the mode [that] they conscionable applied it to me, we person to springiness the cupful backmost to Nigeria - due to the fact that fractional of the squad was not Ivorian," he told the BBC.

And Thursday could bring yet different setback successful a scheduled tribunal proceeding wherever a justice whitethorn present regularisation that Thiam cannot, arsenic a non-national, pb the PDCI.

The past 2 weeks person seen continuing governmental and ineligible statement implicit this full saga, with the Thiam campy hoping that a operation of fashionable unit and discreet governmental dialog volition pb to a compromise that lets him backmost into the statesmanlike race, possibly on with the different excluded contenders.

And Ouattara, should helium chose not to run, mightiness privation to safeguard his awesome way grounds and unafraid his planetary estimation by intervening with immoderate benignant of woody that allows Thiam to run.

With months to spell earlier the polls, determination is inactive clip for that. But no-one is counting connected it.

Paul Melly is simply a consulting chap with the Africa Programme astatine Chatham House successful London.