Indian air strikes - how will Pakistan respond? Four key questions

In a melodramatic overnight operation, India said it launched rocket and aerial strikes connected 9 sites crossed Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, targeting what it called militant positions based connected "credible intelligence".

The strikes, lasting conscionable 25 minutes betwixt 01:05 and 01:30 India clip (19:35 and 20:00 GMT connected Tuesday), sent shockwaves done the region, with residents jolted awake by thunderous explosions.

Pakistan said lone six locations were deed and claimed to person changeable down 5 Indian combatant jets and a drone - a assertion India has not confirmed.

Islamabad said 26 radical were killed and 46 injured successful Indian aerial strikes and shelling crossed the Line of Control (LoC) - the de facto borderline betwixt India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, India's service reported that 10 civilians were killed by Pakistani shelling connected its broadside of the de facto border.

This crisp escalation comes aft past month's deadly militant attack connected tourists successful Pahalgam successful Indian-administered Kashmir, pushing tensions betwixt the nuclear-armed rivals to unsafe caller heights. India says it has wide grounds linking Pakistan-based terrorists and outer actors to the onslaught - a assertion Pakistan flatly denies. Islamabad has besides pointed retired that India has not offered immoderate grounds to enactment its claim.

In 2016, aft 19 Indian soldiers were killed successful Uri, India launched "surgical strikes" crossed the LoC.

In 2019, the Pulwama bombing, which near 40 Indian paramilitary unit dead, prompted airstrikes heavy into Balakot - the archetypal specified enactment wrong Pakistan since 1971 - sparking retaliatory raids and an aerial dogfight.

Experts accidental the retaliation for the Pahalgam onslaught stands retired for its broader scope, targeting the infrastructure of 3 large Pakistan-based militant groups simultaneously.

India says it struck 9 militant targets crossed Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, hitting heavy into cardinal hubs of Lashkar-e- Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen.

Among the closest targets were 2 camps successful Sialkot, conscionable 6-18km from the border, according to an Indian spokesperson.

The deepest hit, says India, was a Jaish-e-Mohammed office successful Bahawalpur, 100km wrong Pakistan. A LeT campy successful Muzaffarabad, 30km from the LoC and superior of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was linked to caller attacks successful Indian-administered Kashmir, the spokesperson said.

Pakistan says six locations person been hit, but denies allegations of determination being panic camps.

"What's striking this clip is the enlargement of India's targets beyond past patterns. Previously, strikes similar Balakot focused connected Pakistan-administered Kashmir crossed the Line of Control - a militarised boundary," Srinath Raghavan, a Delhi-based historian, told the BBC.

"This time, India has deed into Pakistan's Punjab, crossed the International Border, targeting violent infrastructure, headquarters, and known locations successful Bahawalpur and Muridke linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba. They've besides struck Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizbul Mujahideen assets. This suggests a broader, much geographically expansive response, signalling that aggregate groups are present successful India's crosshairs - and sending a wider message," helium says.

The India-Pakistan International Border is the officially recognised boundary separating the 2 countries, stretching from Gujarat to Jammu.

Ajay Bisaria, a erstwhile Indian precocious commissioner to Pakistan, told the BBC that what India did was a "Balakot positive effect meant to found deterrence, targeting known violent hubs, but accompanied by a beardown de-escalatory message".

"These strikes were much precise, targeted and much disposable than successful the past. Therefore, [they are] little deniable by Pakistan," Mr Bisaria says.

Indian sources accidental the strikes were aimed astatine "re-establishing deterrence".

"The Indian authorities thinks that the deterrence established successful 2019 has worn bladed and needs to beryllium re-established," says Prof Raghavan.

"This seems to reflector Israel's doctrine that deterrence requires periodic, repeated strikes. But if we presume that hitting backmost unsocial volition deter terrorism, we hazard giving Pakistan each inducement to retaliate - and that tin rapidly spiral retired of control."

The bulk of experts hold that a retaliation from Pakistan is inevitable - and diplomacy volition travel into play.

"Pakistan's effect is definite to come. The situation would beryllium to negociate the adjacent level of escalation. This is wherever situation diplomacy volition matter," says Mr Bisaria.

"Pakistan volition beryllium getting proposal to workout restraint. But the cardinal volition beryllium the diplomacy aft the Pakistani effect to guarantee that some countries don't rapidly ascent the ladder of escalation."

• India and Pakistan are successful situation again - here's however they de-escalated successful the past

Pakistan-based experts similar Ejaz Hussain, a Lahore-based governmental and subject analyst, accidental Indian surgical strikes targeting locations specified arsenic Muridke and Bahawalpur were "largely anticipated fixed the prevailing tensions".

Dr Hussain believes retaliatory strikes are likely.

"Given the Pakistani military's media rhetoric and stated resoluteness to settee the scores, retaliatory action, perchance successful the signifier of surgical strikes crossed the border, appears apt successful the coming days," helium told the BBC.

But Dr Hussain worries that surgical strikes connected some sides could "escalate into a constricted accepted war".

Christopher Clary of the University astatine Albany successful the US believes fixed the standard of India's strikes, "visible harm astatine cardinal sites", and reported casualties, Pakistan is highly apt to retaliate.

"Doing different fundamentally would springiness India support to onslaught Pakistan whenever Delhi feels aggrieved and would tally contrary to the Pakistan military's committedness to retaliating with 'quid pro quo plus'," Mr Clary, who studies the authorities of South Asia, told the BBC.

"Given India's stated targets of groups and facilities associated with coercion and militancy successful India, I deliberation it is apt - but acold from definite - that Pakistan volition confine itself to attacks connected Indian subject targets," helium said.

Despite the rising tensions, immoderate experts inactive clasp retired anticipation for de-escalation.

"There is simply a decent accidental we flight this situation with conscionable 1 circular of reciprocal standoff strikes and a play of heightened firing on the Line of Control," says Mr Clary.

However, the hazard of further escalation remains high, making this the "most dangerous" India-Pakistan situation since 2002 - and adjacent much perilous than the 2016 and 2019 standoffs, helium adds.

Experts successful Pakistan enactment that contempt a deficiency of warfare hysteria starring up to India's strike, the concern could rapidly shift.

"We person a profoundly fractured governmental society, with the country's astir fashionable person down bars. Imran Khan's imprisonment triggered a beardown anti-military nationalist backlash," says Umer Farooq, an Islamabad-based expert and a erstwhile analogous of Jane's Defence Weekly.

"Today, the Pakistani nationalist is acold little anxious to enactment the subject compared to 2016 oregon 2019 - the accustomed question of warfare hysteria is noticeably absent. But if nationalist sentiment shifts successful cardinal Punjab wherever anti-India feelings are much prevalent, we could spot accrued civilian unit connected the subject to instrumentality action. And the subject volition regain popularity due to the fact that of this conflict."

Dr Hussain echoes a akin sentiment.

"I judge the existent standoff with India presents an accidental for the Pakistani subject to regain nationalist support, peculiarly from the municipality mediate classes who person precocious criticised it for perceived governmental interference," helium says.

"The military's progressive defence posture is already being amplified done mainstream and societal media, with immoderate outlets claiming that six oregon 7 Indian jets were changeable down.

"Although these claims warrant autarkic verification, they service to bolster the military's representation among segments of the nationalist that conventionally rally astir nationalist defence narratives successful times of outer threat."

India is erstwhile again walking a good enactment betwixt escalation and restraint.

Shortly aft the onslaught successful Pahalgam, India swiftly retaliated by closing the main borderline crossing, suspending a water-sharing treaty, expelling diplomats and halting astir visas for Pakistani nationals. Troops connected some sides person exchanged small-arms fire, and India barred each Pakistani craft from its airspace, mirroring Pakistan's earlier move. In response, Pakistan suspended a 1972 bid pact and took its ain retaliatory measures.

This mirrors India's actions aft the 2019 Pulwama attack, erstwhile it swiftly revoked Pakistan's most-favoured-nation status, imposed dense tariffs and suspended cardinal commercialized and transport links.

The situation had escalated erstwhile India launched aerial strikes connected Balakot, followed by retaliatory Pakistani aerial raids and the seizure of Indian aviator Abhinandan Varthaman, further heightening tensions. However, diplomatic channels yet led to a de-escalation, with Pakistan releasing the aviator successful a goodwill gesture.

"India was consenting to springiness old-fashioned diplomacy different chance.... This, with India having achieved a strategical and subject nonsubjective and Pakistan having claimed a conception of triumph for its home audience," Mr Bisaria told maine past week.