ETMarkets Smart Talk | Check emotions at the door’ – Warren Buffett’s lesson resonates in volatile times: Amar Ambani

In times of marketplace turbulence, it’s not ever the smartest capitalist who wins—but the astir emotionally disciplined one.

Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, planetary argumentation shifts, and uncertain home triggers, Amar Ambani, Executive Director astatine YES SECURITIES, reflects connected Warren Buffett’s timeless investing wisdom: “Check your emotions astatine the door.”

In a candid speech connected the latest conception of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Ambani shares wherefore Warren Buffett’s words are much applicable than ever successful today's volatile markets, and however investors tin navigate uncertainty with patience, prudence, and a contrarian mindset. Edited Excerpts –

Thanks for taking the clip out. The period of May started disconnected connected a volatile enactment with the tariff warfare & present India-Pakistan tensions. What is your instrumentality connected markets?

A) Just arsenic the 90-day intermission connected Trump’s tariff plans brought immoderate relief, caller tensions with Pakistan person reintroduced uncertainty. History suggests specified geopolitical flashpoints seldom origin lasting harm to Indian equities - beryllium it Kargil, the Parliament attack, 26/11, oregon Pulwama.

The post-Uri correction coincided with demonetization, which had a acold deeper economical impact. With the marketplace already down ~15% from its peak, immoderate downside is priced in. That said, I expect continued volatility and a rangebound inclination implicit the adjacent 5–6 months.

Relations with Pakistan could worsen, and immoderate escalation whitethorn trigger knee-jerk reactions. Compounding this is the lack of beardown home triggers - net stay muted and depletion betterment is inactive weak.

For semipermanent investors, this signifier could connection charismatic introduction points. But broadly, 2025 looks much similar a consolidation twelvemonth than a breakout one.

Q) Why this abrupt selloff successful the pharma space? There is immoderate chatter aft US President Donald Trump signed an enforcement bid to ramp up home cause manufacturing.

A) The caller selloff successful the pharma abstraction is driven by renewed concerns astir US policy. President Trump’s enforcement bid to boost home cause manufacturing has added to the overhang, particularly pursuing earlier comments connected imposing 100% tariffs connected imported drugs.

While companies similar Sun Pharma and Lupin person US plants, bulk of Indian pharma’s revenues inactive travel from exports. The enforcement bid besides asks the US FDA to fast-track approvals for home facilities, perchance giving US-based competitors an edge.

Though a commercialized woody betwixt the US and India is likely, uncertainty astir tariffs and regulatory timelines continues to measurement connected sentiment.

On the fundamentals side, Indian pharma’s US revenues person been increasing successful debased azygous digits since 2022. The acute conception successful the home marketplace has besides been anemic for the past 2 years. Additionally, the caller appreciation of the INR is eroding the currency payment that had supported earnings.

Q) May has been comparatively bully for bulls arsenic Nifty closed with gains successful 7 retired of the past 10 years. With FIIs connected a selling spree – volition we spot ‘sell successful May & spell away’?
A) FIIs were dense sellers successful anterior months, starring to immoderate under-ownership successful Indian equities. And there’s been a notable displacement recently, with FIIs turning nett buyers implicit the past mates of weeks.

However, a broader instrumentality volition beryllium connected however the geopolitical concern with Pakistan evolves, planetary commercialized clarity and comparative valuations.

That said, the macro situation is turning supportive: the INR has stabilised and appreciated, the US dollar is softening, and US enslaved yields are easing.

Despite near-term volatility, the structural lawsuit for Indian equities remains intact. I judge the champion signifier of FII flows into India inactive lies ahead.

Q) What is happening with Crude oil? We are seeing immoderate chaotic swings successful commodities. Lower crude lipid volition assistance the economy. How bash you spot the script for India?
A) The existent crude lipid terms scope of $60-70 per tube is successful enactment with our location presumption and appears sustainable. It helps debar inflationary surprises, however, immoderate incremental payment whitethorn beryllium limited, arsenic the authorities has already adjusted substance taxes, keeping retail prices elevated successful spite the autumn successful crude.

India’s lipid import measure stood astatine astir $175 cardinal successful FY24 and is expected to stay astatine akin levels successful FY25 and FY26. So, the incremental economical interaction from benign lipid is apt to beryllium capped from here.

That said, softer crude prices inactive bring meaningful indirect advantages. They assistance stabilise the rupee, amended sentiment, and heighten the comparative attractiveness of Indian equities for overseas investors.

Q) What is your instrumentality connected net and however the adjacent fewer quarters are apt to cookware out?
A) Revenue maturation has been reasonably dependable astatine astir 7% year-on-year implicit the past fewer quarters-excluding Q2, which came successful astatine 4.2%-and we expect Q4 FY25 to travel a akin trend.

The existent communicative this quarter, however, could beryllium connected the borderline front, wherever we’re apt to spot a affirmative astonishment of astir 20 ground points, translating into a nett bushed vs estimates.

Looking ahead, with ostentation nether control, signs of a agrarian depletion revival, and the basal effect kicking successful from Q2 FY26, we expect firm net to accelerate. FY26 net maturation is apt to travel successful astir 12-13%, driven by improved operating leverage and stableness successful input costs.

Q) It looks similar we person entered a sideways market, and money-making mightiness not beryllium that easy. Patience and close banal enactment mightiness beryllium the key. Staying connected currency conscionable similar Buffett is the close strategy?
A) The information that Warren Buffett raised Berkshire’s currency heap to implicit $342 billion, an all-time precocious some successful implicit presumption and arsenic a percent of the company’s size, speaks volumes. He’s been early, cautious, and close yet again - it’s similar scoring a period successful your farewell trial match.

That said, for astir investors, if you had already raised currency earlier, this is the clip to commencement deploying selectively. For those who didn’t, I wouldn’t urge panic selling astatine this signifier unless you're sitting connected importantly overvalued positions. Plenty of prime stocks are present disposable astatine tenable valuations and contiguous bully introduction opportunities.

However, pockets of froth inactive beryllium adjacent aft the correction, and those should beryllium trimmed. This is genuinely a stock-picker’s marketplace now, not 1 wherever you tin trust connected the tide to assistance each boats.

Q) What is your instrumentality connected the caller Warren Buffett AGM? Any learnings that you person gathered from the speech/note?
A) It’s ever insightful to perceive from the master. Sometimes, it's not astir learning thing wholly new, but astir having timeless principles reinforced successful a mode that makes you intermission and reflect.

Buffett’s words this clip truly deed home, particularly erstwhile helium said, “People person emotions, but you’ve got to cheque them astatine the doorway erstwhile you invest.” That’s a almighty reminder successful today’s volatile market.

Another standout enactment for maine was, “We volition marque our champion deals erstwhile radical are the astir pessimistic.” It underscores the worth of contrarian reasoning and affectional discipline, principles that are casual to understand, but hard to signifier consistently.

Buffett’s quality to stay calm, rational, and opportunistic successful the look of marketplace sound is what continues to acceptable him apart.

Q) Equity is bully but determination is immoderate chatter connected the Street that bonds mightiness bash good successful the abbreviated term. What are your views? What should beryllium the perfect plus allocation?
A) Personally, I’m 100% into equities - that’s conscionable my penchant (smiles). But plus allocation is captious for astir investors and should ever beryllium tailored to idiosyncratic factors similar age, hazard appetite and hazard capacity, liquidity needs, and fiscal goals. There’s nary one-size-fits-all formula.

With ostentation apt to undershoot the RBI’s 4% target, existent rates are reasonably high. At a 6% repo rate, the existent complaint is implicit 2%, which opens the doorway for complaint cuts. We could spot up to 3 cuts, bringing the repo complaint down to astir 5.25%.

In that scenario, enslaved yields volition easiness further and the 10-year could drift to beneath 6%. However, the abbreviated extremity whitethorn spot much output compression, particularly aft the distortions of the past mates of years. That could pb to a steepening of the output curve.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions fixed by experts are their own. These bash not correspond the views of the Economic Times)