Church expert predicts election of next pope will feature ‘most diverse’ conclave in Church history

Pope Francis’ accent connected reaching retired to the "peripheries" of the Catholic Church and satellite volition effect successful the astir divers postulation of religion leaders successful past gathering to prime the caller pope. 

According to Mary FioRito, an adept connected papal elections and a elder chap astatine the Catholic Association, this could precise good effect successful the adjacent pope having a precise antithetic acceptable of priorities than the late pontiff. 

Francis has selected astir 80% of the 135 religion leaders – called cardinals – who volition ballot for the adjacent pope successful the upcoming papal conclave.

The effect volition beryllium that alternatively of being dominated by European oregon adjacent Western cardinals, the conclave volition person ample contingents from regions similar Africa and Asia.

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A idiosyncratic holds a representation of precocious Pope Francis astatine the Basílica de San José de Flores, wherever helium worshipped arsenic a youth, pursuing the Vatican's announcement of his death, successful Buenos Aires, Argentina, Monday, April 21, 2025. (Gustavo Garello/AP)

"This volition beryllium the astir divers conclave successful the past of the church," FioRito said.

But this diverseness could spell a departure from immoderate of the defining focuses of Francis’ pontificate, specified arsenic his accent connected "synodality," that is, gatherings of tiny groups from astir the satellite to sermon questions of theology and religion practice.

FioRito sees this adjacent conclave, which she said volition apt statesman May 5, arsenic a question of whether the adjacent pope volition beryllium a antheral who continues Francis’ bequest oregon shifts the church’s absorption to problems similar persecution and poverty, which are large issues successful countries similar Nigeria, Pakistan and India.

In Nigeria alone, wherever astir fractional of the colonisation is Christian, 3,100 Christians were killed and 2,830 were kidnapped successful 2024, according a study by planetary spiritual state watchdog Open Doors. 

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Pope Francis delivers his Sunday Angelus blessing from his residence astatine the Casa Santa Marta connected Nov. 26, 2023 successful Vatican City. (Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/Getty Images)

In this sense, FioRito predicted that the African cardinals, who present signifier a important voting bloc successful the conclave, volition play a large relation successful selecting the adjacent pope.

She explained that the African religion has a precise antithetic acceptable of priorities, which person been shaped successful ample portion by the realities of accelerated maturation coupled with aggravated persecution.

"We're acrophobic astir things similar clime change, and they're acrophobic astir not being locked successful a religion and acceptable connected fire," she explained. "They're not sitting astir astatine these tables for 10 discussing large ideas. They conscionable privation to marque definite their kid gets to schoolhouse without getting changeable and they tin wage their rent this month."

With that volition travel a tendency to prime a pope who volition respect the African religion arsenic an adjacent and who volition basal against "ideological colonization" from the West with concepts similar clime change, termination and sex ideology.

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Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson waits to speech Christmas greetings with Pope Francis astatine the Clementina Hall connected Dec. 21, 2013, successful Vatican City. (Franco Origlia/Vatican Pool/Getty Images)

"The cardinals successful Africa are precise delicate to this benignant of ideological colonization wherever they're not being colonized successful the accepted way, but the ideas of the West are coming successful and attempting to alteration African civilization with Western ideas without listening to the radical first," she said.

With this successful mind, FioRito pointed to Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, who astatine 71 is young capable to beryllium selected and is seen by galore arsenic a "John Paul II-type personality." He is respected by some the Pope Francis synodality camps arsenic good arsenic the African bishops.

Another candidate, FioRito said, who could perchance "bridge the gap" betwixt the antithetic worlds is American-born Cardinal Robert Prevost, who presently serves arsenic the president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. However, FioRito noted that Prevost whitethorn beryllium little apt if cardinals "don't privation to spot truthful overmuch of the world's powerfulness concentrated successful the United States."

FioRito besides predicted issues of modernity versus tradition, which person spelled immoderate of the astir important controversies during Francis’ pontificate successful the West, volition besides play a factor.

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Cardinals locomotion successful procession to the Sistine Chapel astatine the Vatican, astatine the opening of the conclave connected April 18, 2005. (Osservatore Romano via AP)

She said that amid a wide diminution successful religion successful the West, determination has been a palpable displacement successful young radical embracing much accepted forms of worship successful the church, specified arsenic the accepted Latin Mass.

"That's wherever the 20-somethings are going to Mass," she said. "In a satellite wherever there's truthful overmuch crassness and vulgarity, you person thing present that's timeless and conscionable benignant of transports you to different world."

Despite this, she said the contented of the accepted Latin Mass is much of a "niche liturgical contented that I don't deliberation is going to person overmuch impact."

FioRito noted that, dissimilar governmental elections, the enactment of the adjacent pope is little astir a acceptable of issues oregon policies, but alternatively is much astir the antheral himself.

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Cardinals of the Catholic Church be the predetermination conclave successful the Sistine Chapel connected April 18, 2005 astatine the Vatican. (Arturo Mari, Vatican Pool)

"I wouldn't operation it successful presumption of issues, arsenic if we're talking astir the system oregon migration. We're looking astatine idiosyncratic men and asking ourselves, who tin service the religion champion astatine this infinitesimal and who is the idiosyncratic champion equipped to instrumentality connected this planetary role?" she said.

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"The beatified father's relation is to beryllium a halfway of unity for the religion successful preaching the connection and the gospel," FioRito went on. "So, it's looking astatine idiosyncratic people, their strengths, their weaknesses, their backgrounds, what limitations they mightiness have. And past really, successful a precise prayerful way, asking, what does the religion request present successful a caller pope?"

"My consciousness of it," she went on, "I deliberation the cardinals request to beryllium looking astatine the religion contiguous globally and not conscionable successful their ain backyards, but globally and saying, ‘Who is the antheral who tin champion instrumentality the religion guardant into this caller era?'"