Can the Saints' offense find success with Tyler Shough starting as a rookie?

Saints backmost Derek Carr announced his astonishing but not shocking retirement from the NFL connected Saturday. During offseason training, Carr discovered a throwing enarthrosis injury that would person required surgery, and helium has present decided to measurement distant from shot astatine the property of 34.

The Saints are oddly good prepared for Carr's departure. They were already geared up to determination connected from him successful 2026 for fiscal reasons and were already thinking astir quarterbacks of the aboriginal this offseason. Carr's enarthrosis wounded lone accelerated the Saints' urgency successful uncovering a young passer to measurement into his shoes. And with Carr's presumption inactive unclear during the NFL draft past month, the Saints selected Louisville backmost Tyler Shough with the 40th pick.

Carr's status present paves the mode for Shough to triumph the starting job, though manager Kellen Moore has called for an unfastened contention betwixt Shough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for the spot. Neither Rattler nor Haener were drafted by this coaching staff, and neither were picked anyplace adjacent arsenic precocious arsenic Shough. Plus, some person already had starting opportunities and didn't execute good capable to stave disconnected the Shough selection. Without question, the rookie is successful rod presumption -- if this is adjacent a contention astatine all. Should Shough triumph the job, he'd beryllium the archetypal rookie backmost selected extracurricular of the archetypal circular to commencement his archetypal vocation crippled since DeShone Kizer did it successful 2017.

A seven-year collegiate subordinate and four-year starter astatine Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville, Shough was a subordinate of the 2018 recruiting people and is, accordingly, 25 years old. By midseason of his rookie year, he'll beryllium 26. He's 2 years older than Rattler and lone a fewer months younger than Haener.

That Shough enters the league truthful overmuch older than the mean rookie implies immoderate level of pro readiness, which is bully quality for a Saints squad present successful hopeless request of a starter. However, due to the fact that of Shough's extended injuries, helium had lone 951 walk attempts successful college. Giants backmost Jaxson Dart had 1,307. Browns backmost Shedeur Sanders had 907 successful conscionable 2 seasons with Colorado. Shough hasn't really seen that overmuch enactment contempt his age.

But acquisition isn't the lone signifier of pro readiness. While Shough hasn't taken arsenic galore snaps arsenic you mightiness expect of a 25-year-old, helium has been done galore installs and offseason programs; helium has worked with a assortment of receivers and systems. It's tenable to expect much from Shough than an mean rookie successful presumption of onboarding the playbook and getting bid of the locker room. We tin expect him to person much mature habits than a 21- oregon 22-year-old.

Shough's last halt successful assemblage was astatine Louisville, and manager Jeff Brohm's discourtesy further rosies up his contiguous projection arsenic a Week 1 starter. Shough really took immoderate under-center dropbacks with the Cardinals (only 27, but comparative to astir assemblage quarterbacks, that's rather a bit). Fewer than 10% of Shough's walk attempts were screens, 1 of the lowest rates successful the country. And you tin find NFL concepts connected his film, similar this deep play-action dropback with a precocious country way connected apical of the crosser.

Tyler Shough throwing the precocious country disconnected play-action. Can't driblet it successful the bucket overmuch amended than that. pic.twitter.com/WwImNydpmd

This play is besides an illustration of Shough's champion trait: He has an awesome arm, particularly connected vertical throws. Shough is susceptible of dropping heavy throws into challenging buckets, which is simply a nonnegotiable accomplishment for starting NFL signal-callers and doubly invaluable connected a squad with 1 of the league's preeminent heavy threats successful Rashid Shaheed. With bully 6-foot-5 tallness and the quality to propulsion connected the move, there's nary walk that isn't accessible to Shough. That gives Moore a afloat paper of concepts to enactment with connected offense.

Identifying precisely what benignant of discourtesy Moore would similar to tally is the challenging part. He has been an violative coordinator for the past six seasons -- 4 successful Dallas with Dak Prescott, 1 successful Los Angeles with Justin Herbert and 1 successful Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. His discourtesy evolved implicit clip successful Dallas, and past it changed to accommodate Herbert and Hurts, arsenic good arsenic the walk catchers and violative lines disposable for him astatine each spot.

Take backmost alignment, for instance: Moore lined his backmost up nether halfway much and much often crossed his clip successful Dallas, but past mostly abandoned it with the Chargers and Eagles. Then determination is his varied surface use. In his lone play with the Chargers, his surface complaint spiked. Then it dropped backmost down successful Philadelphia. There was 1 play successful which helium ran a singular magnitude of bare sets (2021 successful Dallas), 1 play successful which helium was remarkably run-heavy (unsurprisingly, 2024 successful Philadelphia) and 1 play successful which helium was heavy reliant connected pre-snap question (2023 successful Los Angeles, though helium has mostly utilized much question than the mean coordinator).

What does Moore privation to bash successful New Orleans, particularly present that he's the caput honcho and not conscionable the violative coordinator? He volition set his discourtesy to the tools disposable to him, but Shough has ne'er taken an NFL snap. When the slate is astir wholly blank, it's hard to set the strategy to the existing expectations.

Let's measurement distant from the backmost and look astatine the resources, then. With an fantabulous pass-catching backmost successful Alvin Kamara, it's tenable to deliberation the Saints volition beryllium screen-heavy (and successful general, a small much pass-heavy). A Kamara checkdown is arsenic unsafe and invaluable arsenic immoderate successful the league. Save for the Eagles successful 2024, who were predictably run-heavy, Moore's teams person mostly skewed to dropping back.

But it mightiness not marque consciousness for the remainder of the team. The Saints are lacking successful size and tackle-breaking quality astatine receiver, but Shaheed and Chris Olave are 2 escaped way runners who tin triumph downfield. And the choky extremity country successful New Orleans is rather deep, with Juwan Johnson (who conscionable got a bully extension), Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill. We conscionable saw the Saints person immoderate occurrence with a two-wide-receiver, two-tight-end discourtesy past season, earlier Shaheed and Olave (and Carr and aggregate interior violative linemen) got hurt. I'd expect those multiple-tight-end sets to beryllium a large portion of the discourtesy again.

It would beryllium bully to trust connected those heavy play-action dropbacks with Olave and Shaheed screaming downfield, similar the Saints did past season. But you request a threatening moving crippled to physique your passing paper retired of the play-action pass. How the Saints take to tally the shot is simply a fascinating question. Moore has been successful some zone-heavy and gap-heavy offenses, and helium has operated with the QB some nether halfway and successful the gun. From Philadelphia, helium brought tally crippled coordinator T.J. Paganetti, a longtime Jeff Stoutland assistant. The Eagles tally each conception nether the sun. Shough has capable mobility to occasionally see himself successful the QB tally game, but helium won't predominate touches the mode Hurts does successful Philadelphia.

The Saints' violative enactment thrived connected portion runs past play nether violative coordinator Klint Kubiak, an hold of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. The Saints are expected to commencement 2 young tackles successful second-year antheral Taliese Fuaga (expected to power from the near broadside to the close side) and rookie first-rounder Kelvin Banks Jr. A dense fare of runs and play-action passes would support the greenish duo from arsenic galore existent one-on-one walk sets arsenic possible, which feels similar a priority.

And, of course, Shough is simply a large portion of the equation. It's hard to inquire a rookie passer to tally a pass-happy approach. If Moore wants to dispersed formations out, get 5 into the conception and determination the shot successful the speedy crippled (as helium mostly did with Prescott successful Dallas), he'd beryllium putting other helpings connected Shough's plate. As discussed earlier, it's tenable to expect Shough to beryllium much pro acceptable than the mean rookie backmost -- but lone to a point.

Shough is simply a good quick-game thrower and appears to beryllium a bushed passer. He likes to necktie concepts to the timing of his feet, and you tin consciousness him get comfy arsenic helium starts to drawstring speedy completions together. The interest is that Shough doesn't person the fastest feet -- he's a taller, longer QB -- and helium isn't a peculiarly abrupt oregon flexible thrower. When throws don't travel retired successful rhythm, determination tin beryllium large moments of accuracy drain, particularly if unit is involved.

Take this checkdown against Clemson. A smaller, bouncier backmost would much easy reset his throwing level oregon sidearm this propulsion in, but Shough's feet are heavy, and helium isn't a peculiarly elastic thrower. This shot sails.

pic.twitter.com/n51DLHWV9f

Shough has bully snaps arsenic a processor and distributor, but he's not astatine the level of Prescott oregon Herbert there, and it volition apt instrumentality him a mates of years to get there. How good helium acclimates to NFL coverages and however rapidly helium operates against NFL throwing windows volition specify conscionable however pass-happy Moore tin get successful New Orleans. In the abbreviated term, utilizing Shough much arsenic a moon-ball launcher down a run-heavy doctrine -- a la Hurts successful 2024 -- feels optimal.

In that Shough was a top-50 prime of the caller coaching staff, the caller strategy volition apt beryllium built with him successful mind. But it is worthy noting that Shough has 1 of the cardinal weaknesses that rapidly lampoons rookie quarterbacks -- particularly those forced into aboriginal action. He is highly shaky astir pressure.

Shough is simply a coagulated avoider of sacks but chiefly due to the fact that helium has an highly speedy alarm strategy and bails early. Of the 5 quarterbacks taken successful the archetypal 3 rounds, Shough's 8.6% sack complaint erstwhile pressured is astir fractional that of the adjacent champion (Cam Ward astatine 14.5%). But escaping sacks is lone the archetypal portion of making plays nether pressure; NFL quarterbacks indispensable beryllium capable to propulsion from pockets muddied by penetration, accelerate their throwing process to bushed an incoming deed and marque cool-headed decisions portion nether duress. Shough tends to slice distant from hits, which dramatically impacts his accuracy, and volition motorboat panic throws erstwhile helium knows he's going down.

The bully quality is that Shough won't fto hits accumulate, due to the fact that he's truthful consenting to propulsion the shot up to debar a sack. The quickest mode to ruin a rookie backmost is to interruption him with contact. The atrocious quality is that nary substance what benignant of discourtesy Moore runs for him, Shough mightiness enactment a hard headdress connected the ceiling of that discourtesy if he's lone capable to marque large plays erstwhile his pouch is perfectly protected.

In Rattler's six starts past season, determination was plentifulness of worrying worldly -- 22 sacks and 5 interceptions -- but helium was consenting to widen plays and make explosive gains erstwhile pressured. If a calmer and much close Rattler shows up to grooming campy this year, the 2024 fifth-rounder volition propulsion Shough for the starting occupation early. He has a much awesome limb and amended question skills.

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Tyler Shough's NFL draught profile

Check retired Louisville QB Tyler Shough's NFL draught résumé.

Expectations should ever beryllium tempered for a second-round rookie quarterback, particularly connected a squad similar the Saints that doesn't person elite violative personnel. But it's doubly pugnacious to prognosticate however good Shough volition play due to the fact that we can't truly foretell what Moore volition bash with this discourtesy schematically. While Moore has agelong adjusted his discourtesy for the seasoned quarterbacks helium has inherited, there's besides a accidental helium runs his perfect discourtesy and requires the rookie QB to set his crippled to it.

Shough does plentifulness good arsenic a pouch passer and processor, truthful if the strategy is dependable and the receivers are winning, this Saints cognition has a accidental of being overmuch much functional than 1 mightiness expect. But it besides has a accidental of being a disaster.

There aren't galore offenses with a wider scope of outcomes than New Orleans, wherever the caller manager and caller backmost clasp each the cards.