Bharti Airtel Q4 Preview: PAT may jump up to 226% YoY on robust ARPU. Up to 35% revenue uptick seen

Telecom large Bharti Airtel volition denote its net connected Tuesday, May 13, wherever the institution is expected to study a robust year-on-year maturation successful its Q4FY25 nett aft taxation (PAT) aided by a steadfast uptick successful its Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).

The nett net emergence is seen successful a wide scope of 90%-226% according to estimates by 4 brokerages, which is betwixt Rs 4,110 crore and Rs 6,759 crore. The gross is apt to emergence by 23%-35%, falling successful the scope of Rs 46,200 crore to Rs 50,588 crore.

The estimates of ICICI Securities, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Mirae Asset Sharekhan person been taken into account.

The highest PAT and gross estimates person travel from ICICI Securities, portion Morgan Stanley has the lowest nett net figures and Nomura has the astir blimpish topline estimates.

The institution is expected to study a double-digit YoY uptick successful ARPU.

Here’s what brokerages recommended:

ICICI Securities

Bharti Airtel is expected to study a consolidated PAT leap of 226% YoY successful Q4FY25 to Rs 6,759 crore. It whitethorn autumn by 54% connected a QoQ basis. The company's gross is expected to turn by 35% YoY to Rs 50,588 crore, besides marking a 12% summation connected a sequential basis.

Company’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) whitethorn leap 51% YoY and 19% QoQ to Rs 29,142 crore portion the EBITDA borderline expanded to 57.6%, up by 610 ground points YoY and 310 ground points QoQ, reflecting beardown outgo controls and higher operational efficiency.

ICICI Securities has a ‘buy’ standing connected Bharti Airtel for a terms people of Rs 1,925.

Our Q4FY25 estimates constituent to mobile services gross dip for Bharti Airtel, down 0.1% QoQ, this brokerage said.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is expected to study a PAT leap of 90% YoY, portion a diminution of 72% sequentially to Rs 4,110 crore. Revenue is expected to emergence 26% YoY and 3.4% QoQ to Rs 48,469 crore, supported by steadfast subscriber additions.

The EBITDA whitethorn basal astatine Rs 27,244 crore, reflecting a 37% summation implicit the erstwhile year, though it dipped 6.2% sequentially.

The company’s subscriber basal expanded to 361 million, up 2.6% YoY and 1.4% QoQ. Average gross per idiosyncratic (ARPU) roseate to Rs 246, up 18% annually and marginally higher by Rs 0.3 sequentially, indicating unchangeable monetisation trends.

“For the halfway India concern (excluding passive infrastructure), we expect gross maturation of 0.2% QoQ and 16% YoY. This is partially impacted by a diminution successful the endeavor concern arsenic the institution is exiting low-margin businesses, which would person impacted numbers for portion of the quarter,” Morgan said successful a preview note.

“We expect halfway India EBITDA to amended by 1% QoQ and 8.6% YoY. We expect higher dividend payout successful F25 vs F24, outlook for capex numbers successful F26 to beryllium little than F25 and reaffirmation of balancing superior allocation towards lowering indebtedness and paying backmost to shareholders,” this brokerage said.

Nomura

Bharti Airtel is expected to study a nett net of Rs 5,300 crore for the 4th nether review, marking a robust 154% YoY growth, though it could diminution 64% connected a sequential basis.

Nomura pegs gross astatine Rs 46,200 crore, reflecting a 23% YoY summation and a humble 2% QoQ rise. EBITDA whitethorn travel successful astatine Rs 25,300 crore, rising by 31% YoY and 3% implicit the erstwhile quarter.

EBITDA borderline could amended to 54.8%, compared to 54.5% successful Q3FY25 and 51.5% successful Q4FY24, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.

The ARPU whitethorn travel astir Rs 247, rising 18% YoY and 1% QoQ, supported by amended lawsuit realisation.

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Sharekhan

The institution is apt to study nett income of Rs 47,528 crore for the quarter, registering a 26% YoY maturation and a 5.3% summation sequentially.

The bottommost enactment is apt to emergence sharply to Rs 5,800 crore, jumping 97% YoY and 23% QoQ.

Operating nett borderline (OPM) whitethorn amended importantly to 55.5%, expanding by 400 ground points compared to Q4FY24 and 100 ground points implicit Q3FY25, indicating enhanced ratio and profitability.

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