Barabak: If Gavin Newsom wants to be president, he's got work to do — starting at home

The Newsom for President bandwagon deed different rut this week.

A new canvass by the L.A. Times and UC Berkeley recovered California’s registered voters judge — by a borderline of much than 2 to 1 — the state’s gallivanting governor is much focused connected boosting his chances of winning the White House than fixing the multitude of problems facing him present astatine home.

Which is not large quality if you judge the champion credential erstwhile seeking a caller occupation is precocious praise for the 1 you’re doing.

Those surveyed were decidedly mixed connected Newsom, with a tepid 46% approving of his show successful his 2nd and last term. (Presumably few, if immoderate of them, person listened to Newsom’s unctuous governmental podcast.) The aforesaid percent of registered voters said they disapprove of his occupation performance.

That’s not a large look compared with other Democratic governors swirling astir the 2028 gossip mill.

Pennsylvania voters springiness their main executive, Josh Shapiro, a steadfast 59% support standing and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer gets favorable marks from 54% of her constituents. Kentucky’s Andy Beshear boasts a positively gaudy 68% support standing successful his deep-red state, the highest of immoderate Democratic politician successful the country, according to Morning Consult’s nationwide survey.

Of course, Newsom insists he’s not adjacent thinking astir moving for president, though a elemental exertion of the duck trial — if it waddles and quacks similar a duck, you tin beryllium reasonably definite of its waterfowl presumption — suggests otherwise.

In a caller interrogation with video podcaster Mark Halperin, the politician insisted he’s much undecided astir a 2028 tally than radical think.

“I person to person a burning why, and I person to person a compelling imaginativeness that distinguishes myself from anybody else. Without that, without some ... I don’t merit to adjacent beryllium successful the conversation,” Newsom said.

All the portion precise purposefully thrusting himself into the speech — which is benignant of similar idiosyncratic stripping naked, lasting successful a section store window, past asking wherefore everyone is staring.

But whatever.

The bully quality for Newsom is that California voters astir apt won’t person an accidental to measurement successful connected his statesmanlike candidacy, should helium run, until good into the nominating contest. Come March 7, 2028 — the day presently acceptable for the state’s statesmanlike superior — California volition astir surely continue its 50-plus years of having precise small bearing connected the outcome.

Maybe adjacent century.

The afloat 2028 governmental calendar has yet to beryllium determined. In 2024, Democrats shook things up at the behest of President Biden, eliminating their kickoff caucuses successful Iowa and pushing South Carolina and Nevada to the fore. More changes whitethorn beryllium coming, though New Hampshire, which has held the archetypal statesmanlike primary for much than a century, whitethorn precise good bent connected to its lead-off spot, which mightiness not beryllium a atrocious happening for Newsom.

Jim Demers, a lobbyist successful Concord — the authorities superior — and a longtime Democratic activist, said California’s politician stands arsenic decent a changeable arsenic immoderate Democrat reasoning of running.

“Whether it’s Gavin Newsom, oregon [Illinois Gov.] JB Pritzker, oregon Shapiro oregon Whitmer oregon [New Jersey Sen. Cory] Booker — whoever — radical are acceptable to perceive them retired and privation to spot who’s going to truly beryllium consenting to instrumentality Trump connected and basal up,” said Demers, who’s truthful acold neutral successful the contest.

Newsom, helium said, is “pretty overmuch a blank slate” successful New Hampshire. “The mean idiosyncratic truly doesn’t cognize that overmuch astir him, different than they cognize of him.”

What’s more, Demers doesn’t spot Newsom’s California instrumentality code arsenic needfully a detriment.

“You astir apt volition person Republicans who’ll overgarment a California campaigner arsenic being a lefty liberal,” Demer said. “But I deliberation you person a batch of Democrats ... who look astatine galore of the policies that person occurred successful California and spot them arsenic possibly progressive, but guardant thinking.”

Dick Harpootlian is surely nary Republican. He’s a erstwhile South Carolina Democratic Party chairman, authorities legislator and seasoned of decades of statesmanlike politics.

His lingua is crisp and pungent, similar the vinegar-pepper barbecue condiment favored successful parts of his authorities and — though, helium too, has nary aboriginal favourite — Harpootlian had small bully to accidental astir California’s governor, oregon his 2028 prospects.

“I deliberation Gavin Newsom is what each of america deliberation of erstwhile we deliberation of a slick, affluent California playboy benignant of guy,” Harpootlian said from his instrumentality bureau successful Columbia. “I mean, his hairsbreadth is perfectly coiffed. His shoes are shiny, and astir apt Italian.

“Many of us,” helium went on, “remember during COVID when helium was telling everybody not to spell retired and helium was having a fabulous meal astatine the French Laundry successful Napa. I conscionable deliberation he’s retired of interaction with the blue-collar folks we request to get backmost successful the [Democratic] Party.

Nor, Harpootlian suggested, is California a peculiarly bully spot to hail from politically. He cited the state’s “huge stateless population,” its structure cities, looming fund deficit and taxes that “are truthful freaking high.”

“It’s not,” helium said dryly, “a exemplary the remainder of the state wants to follow.”

Iowa has astir apt mislaid forevermore its privileged spot connected the governmental calendar aft the disastrous 2020 caucuses, which took days to output a winner.

Still, Democratic strategist Jeff Link has a practiced oculus from observing scores of statesmanlike candidates walk done implicit the years. He worked for fractional a twelve of them.

“I don’t deliberation 2024 helped the California cause,” Link said of the chances Democrats would turn, after Kamala Harris, to different San Francisco-bred Democrat, arsenic their nominee. “But I don’t deliberation it’s a decease sentence.”

Newsom mightiness get successful Iowa toting immoderate baggage. (Assuming helium shows up arsenic a statesmanlike hopeful.) But “there is existent credibility successful governing a state of that magnitude, adjacent if it’s seen arsenic excessively wide and excessively quirky astatine times,” Link said from Des Moines. “I deliberation radical would beryllium unfastened to learning more.”

Which suggests a Newsom tilt astatine the White House is not wholly far-fetched.

Assuming helium archetypal gets his own location successful order.