53-Year-Old Soviet Spacecraft Will Plummet Back to Earth This Week

Kosmos 482 has been trapped successful Earth’s orbit for 53 years but its wandering travel is coming to an end. The failed Venus ngo is expected to reenter done the ambiance successful a melodramatic autumn toward its location planet, wherever it whitethorn stay intact oregon scatter its bits crossed a inactive chartless determination connected either broadside of the equator.

The Soviet-era spacecraft volition plunge done Earth’s ambiance sometime betwixt May 8 to 12. As of now, the nonstop determination of wherever Kosmos 482 volition crash-land connected Earth is inactive unknown, with a preliminary estimation that stretches crossed ample parts of the satellite connected either broadside of the equator. It’s besides unclear whether the spacecraft volition stay successful 1 portion oregon if it volition interruption isolated during reentry, raining down bits of debris.

The Kosmos 482 spacecraft, arsenic imaged from Earth. © Ralf Vandebergh

Kosmos 482 launched connected March 31, 1972 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome spaceport successful what is cognize Kazakhstan. The ngo was an effort by the Soviet abstraction programme to scope Venus, but it failed to summation capable velocity to participate a transportation trajectory toward the scorching blistery planet. A malfunction resulted successful an motor pain that wasn’t capable to scope Venus’ orbit, according to NASA. Since then, the spacecraft has been stuck successful an elliptical orbit astir Earth. The spacecraft entered a higher orbit measuring 130 by 6,089 miles (210 by 9,800 kilometers).

Astrophotographer Ralf Vandebergh precocious captured images of Kosmos 482 successful abstraction up of its projected descent, and made a enactment of what appeared to beryllium a parachute deployed from the spacecraft. “At this constituent thing is sure,” Vandebergh told Gizmodo successful an email. “In 2014 I had a archetypal motion of this successful my images but I didn’t deliberation earnestly astir this possibility. But erstwhile I processed the 2024 images taken 10 years aboriginal and saw the aforesaid thing, I thought I needed to study this possibility.”

#Cosmos482 Note astir the parachute possibility. Although inactive speculation arsenic mentioned before, technically the images are correct. There are nary tracking issues, scope issues and I not expect a akin atmosperic effect successful images taken 10 years apart, if that would beryllium the case. pic.twitter.com/DiCMzqNY0Z

— Ralf Vandebergh (@ralfvandebergh) May 6, 2025

Even if the spacecraft’s exposed parachute is hanging retired successful space, it’s improbable that it would inactive bash its occupation of slowing down Kosmos’ descent toward Earth.

After failing to scope Venus, the spacecraft broke isolated into 4 antithetic pieces, with 2 of the smaller fragments reentering implicit Ashburton, New Zealand, 2 days aft its launch. The 2 remaining pieces are a bearer autobus and a lander probe, which unneurotic signifier a spherical unit vas weighing much than 1,000 pounds (495 kilograms).

Today, it’s hard to find wherever the remainder of the heat-resistant spacecraft volition reenter Earth’s atmosphere. Its existent orbit indicates it should beryllium anyplace betwixt latitude 52 degrees northbound and 52 degrees south, according to Marco Langbroek, a outer tracker based successful Leiden, the Netherlands. That hardly narrows it down arsenic this country includes the United States, South America, Africa and Australia, and astir of Europe and Asia southbound of the Arctic Circle. The spacecraft’s landing portion volition go much wide arsenic it approaches its doomed reentry.

Another question is however overmuch of it volition past the vigor of atmospheric reentry. “As this is simply a lander that was designed to past transition done the Venus atmosphere, it is imaginable that it volition past reentry done the Earth ambiance intact, and interaction intact,” Langbroek wrote successful a blog update.

Langbroek suggests an interaction velocity of astir 150 miles per hr (242 kilometers per hour) if the lander does not interruption isolated oregon mostly pain up during reentry. The kinetic vigor astatine interaction is akin to that of a 15- to 21-inch-long (40- to 55-centimeter) meteorite fragment, according to Langbroek.

Since our satellite is mostly made up of water, the spacecraft volition apt extremity up astatine the bottommost of an water floor. The chances of it impacting an inhabited area, however, are not zero truthful it does airs immoderate signifier of hazard particularly arsenic its reentry day and determination stay uncertain.