27 lives per kilometre: How Russia took record losses in Ukraine in 2024

Last twelvemonth was the deadliest for Russian forces since the commencement of the full-scale warfare successful Ukraine: astatine slightest 45,287 radical were killed.

This is astir 3 times much than successful the archetypal twelvemonth of the penetration and importantly exceeds the losses of 2023, erstwhile the longest and deadliest conflict of the warfare was taking spot successful Bakhmut.

At the commencement of the war, losses happened successful waves during battles for cardinal locations, but 2024 saw a month-on-month summation successful the decease toll arsenic the beforehand enactment dilatory edged forward, enabling america to found that Russia mislaid astatine slightest 27 lives for each kilometre of Ukrainian territory captured.

The BBC Russian Service, successful collaboration with autarkic media outlet Mediazona and a squad of volunteers, has processed unfastened root information from Russian cemeteries, subject memorials and obituaries.

So far, we person identified the names of 106,745 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

The existent fig is intelligibly overmuch higher. Military experts estimation our fig whitethorn screen betwixt 45% and 65% of deaths, which would mean 164,223 to 237,211 people.

20 February 2024 was the deadliest time for Russian forces successful 2024.

Among the casualties were Aldar Bairov, Igor Babych and Okhunjon Rustamov, who were with the 36th Motorised Rifle Brigade erstwhile 4 Ukrainian long-range HIMARS missiles deed a grooming crushed adjacent the metropolis of Volnovakha successful occupied Donetsk.

They had been ordered to enactment up for a medal ceremony. Sixty-five servicemen were killed, including their commandant Col Musaev. Dozens much were wounded.

Bairov, 22 and from Buryatia successful eastbound Siberia, had studied to beryllium a nutrient sanitation specializer but was drafted for mandatory subject work and past signed a declaration to go a nonrecreational soldier.

In February 2022 helium went to combat successful Ukraine and was portion of the conflict for Borodyanka during his brigade's beforehand towards Kyiv successful March 2022. The municipality was astir wholly destroyed. Ukrainian sources accidental Russian soldiers were progressive successful the execution of civilians.

Okhunjon Rustamov, 31 and from Chita successful Siberia, had worked arsenic a welder aft serving a mandatory word successful peculiar forces. He was mobilised during a partial draught successful October 2022.

Unlike Rustamov, Igor Babych, 32, had volunteered to spell to war. He had worked with adults and children diagnosed with cerebral palsy, helping them with carnal therapy until April 2023.

In full 201 Russian soldiers died connected that day, according to our data.

A fewer hours aft the onslaught connected the grooming ground, then-Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu met Vladimir Putin to bring him quality of subject occurrence from the beforehand line.

There was nary notation of the grooming crushed attack, nor was determination immoderate connection from the Ministry of Defence successful its regular reports.

A comparative of Okhunjon Rustamov said she had already buried 3 adjacent household members implicit the people of the war. "In December 2022, my hubby died. On 10 February 2024, my godfather. And connected 20 February my half-brother. From 1 ceremonial to the next."

In our analysis, we prioritised nonstop dates of decease for soldiers. If that wasn't available, we utilized the day of the ceremonial oregon the day the decease was reported.

In the archetypal 2 years of the war, 2022 and 2023, Russian losses followed a wave-like pattern: dense warring with precocious casualties alternated with periods of comparative calm.

In 2023, for example, astir casualties occurred betwixt January and March, erstwhile Russian forces attempted to seizure the cities of Vuhledar and Bakhmut successful Donetsk Oblast.

In the archetypal twelvemonth of the full-scale invasion, according to our calculations, Russia mislaid astatine slightest 17,890 soldiers. This fig does not see losses from Russia's 2 proxy forces successful occupied eastbound Ukraine.

In 2023, the fig roseate to 37,633.

In 2024, determination was nary play showing a important autumn successful casualties. Bloody battles for Avdiivka and Robotyne were followed by intensified assaults towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk.

In August 2024, Russian conscripts were killed erstwhile Ukrainian forces stormed implicit the borderline into the Kursk region. From August 6 to 13 alone, an estimated 1,226 Russian soldiers died.

However, the heaviest wide losses occurred during a dilatory Russian beforehand successful the eastbound betwixt September and November 2024, according to starring US subject expert Michael Kofman.

"Tactics emphasised repeated attacks with dispersed battle groups, utilizing tiny infantry occurrence teams, which accrued wide casualties comparative to terrain gained," helium explained.

After astir 2 years of aggravated fighting, Russian forces seized the logistical hub of Vuhledar successful Donetsk connected 1 October 2024.

According to estimates by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), from September to November 2024, Russian forces captured 2,356 quadrate kilometres of Ukraine.

Even then, Ukrainian forces astatine the beforehand did not collapse.

The outgo of this beforehand was astatine slightest 11,678 Russian subject deaths.

Actual losses figures are apt higher. We person lone accounted for soldiers and officers whose names appeared successful publically disposable obituaries and whose dates of decease oregon ceremonial fell wrong this period.

Overall successful 2024, according to ISW, Russia captured 4,168 quadrate kilometres of land. This means that for each quadrate kilometre captured, 27 Russian soldiers were killed, and this does not see the wounded.

Russia has recovered ways of replenishing its depleted forces.

"Russian recruitment besides accrued successful the 2nd fractional of 2024 and exceeded Russian casualties, allowing Moscow to make further formations," says Michael Kofman.

One-time payments to soldiers signing caller contracts were accrued successful 3 Russian regions. Combat salaries for unpaid soldiers are 5 to 7 times higher than the mean wage successful astir regions.

We besides people arsenic volunteers those who signed up to debar transgression prosecution, which was allowed by instrumentality successful 2024.

Volunteers person go the fastest-growing class of casualties successful our calculations, making up a 4th of those we person identified.

In 2023-2024, thousands of volunteers who signed contracts with the Ministry of Defence were sent to the beforehand lines lone 10–14 days later. Such minimal grooming volition person dramatically reduced their chances of survival, experts say.

One Russian republic, Bashkortostan, has seen the highest numbers of casualties, with 4,836 confirmed deaths. Most were from agrarian areas and 38% had gone to combat with nary subject experience.

The one-time outgo for signing a Russian service declaration successful Ufa is 34 times the region's mean wage of 67,575 rubles (£600).

Calculating deaths from unfastened root information volition ever beryllium incomplete.

This is due to the fact that the bodies of a important fig of soldiers killed successful the past months whitethorn inactive beryllium connected the battlefield and retrieving them presents a hazard to serving soldiers.

The existent decease toll for Russian forces increases significantly, if you see those who fought against Ukraine arsenic portion of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

An appraisal of obituaries and reports of searches for fighters who person mislaid interaction suggests betwixt 21,000 and 23,500 radical whitethorn person been killed by September 2024.

That would bring the full fig of fatalities to 185,000 to 260,700 subject personnel.